Analysis of the market trend of natural rubber standard rubber in February

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, macro aspect, at the beginning of 2018, the macro economy continued to maintain a stable and positive trend, the cumulative GDP in the fourth quarter of 2017 increased by 6.
9% year-on-year, in terms of import and export, in January 2018, the total export volume was 200.
491 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.
10% year-on-year, and the total import volume was 180.
142 billion US dollars
.
A year-on-year increase of 36.
80%.

The official PMI index in January was 51.
3 and the Caixin PMI index was 51.
5, indicating that China's economy continues to maintain its growth trend
.
At present, the price of tianjiao is supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated upward
.

Second, in terms of market, the 16-year quotation of state-owned whole milk in the Shanghai market was 12200 (+200) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 12300-12400 (+200/+200) yuan/ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 14950 (+200) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 46.
56 (+0.
2) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 49 (+0.
09) THB/kg; Field glue 49 (+1) baht/kg; Cup glue 38 (0) baht/kg
.

Third, in terms of inventory, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to grow, reflecting that the current domestic supply and demand situation has not been significantly improved
.
From the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone, natural rubber has entered the state of
accumulated inventory.
By the end of February, the stocks of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone were 137,000 tons and 105,400 tons
respectively.
The inventory of Japanese ports increased significantly, of which the stocks of raw rubber, synthetic latex, synthetic rubber (solid) and natural latex were 14,736 tons, 23 tons, 1,422 tons and 143 tons respectively, an obvious
increase over the same period last year.
From a seasonal point of view, rubber stocks are expected to show a downward trend
as rubber enters the peak consumption season.

4.
In terms of demand, as of the end of this month, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 58.
11%, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 61.
83%.

According to the data of previous years, it is predicted that the operating rate will pick up
significantly in March.
In 2017, China's tire exports showed a slight growth trend, and it is expected that this year's tire exports will remain stable
.
Therefore, with the end of the Spring Festival, tire exports will also enter the peak season, which will promote the replenishment sentiment
of tire factories.

Future market forecast: This website analyzes the preliminary forecast that the current price of tianjiao will continue to fluctuate overall
.
With import and export performance continuing to be bright and investment and consumption stabilizing, the macroeconomic view
for March was stable and positive.
The world's main rubber-producing areas have entered the off-season of rubber production, the supply of rubber has declined significantly, and the purchase price of raw materials in the place of origin has been firm
.
March is the traditional peak consumption season, with the end of the Spring Festival, the tire factory operating rate will gradually climb, automobile sales also entered the traditional peak season, heavy truck sales will continue to remain high
.
Relevance: With the rise in crude oil prices, the price of synthetic rubber rose slightly, but the price difference with natural rubber is still at a reasonable price
.
In summary, in the environment of strong supply and weak demand, Shanghai rubber will come out of the upward trend
of shock.