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According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the spot price of domestic natural rubber standard rubber showed a slight upward trend
this month.
The average price of the Tianjiao market at the beginning of the month remained at about 14340 yuan / ton, and rose to about 14700 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and the overall increase was 360 yuan / ton, a range of 2.
51%.
Natural rubber merchants shipped positively this month, and the overall market atmosphere of natural rubber continued to be good
.
The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:
First, in terms of macro, Thai rubber department officials said on the 16th that Asia's largest rubber manufacturers will meet in Thailand in September, which will put the plan to raise rubber prices with export restrictions on the agenda
.
In addition, Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co.
, Ltd.
released the 2017 semi-annual report on August 19, which showed that in the first half of 2017, Hainan Rubber achieved a year-on-year increase in operating income of 1.
7 billion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease in net profit of nearly 100 million yuan
.
Among them, the operating income in the first half of the year reached 5.
459 billion yuan, an increase of 45.
84%
over the end of the previous year.
。
Second, in terms of market, the spot market of tianjiao in Jiangsu rose by 100 yuan / ton, Shanghai rubber rose slightly, and the spot market price rose slightly, and the market demand was not very strong
.
Today's reference quotation is as follows: Shanghai self-pickup 16-year warehouse receipt full milk reference 13300-13400 yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L spot quotation reference is 13400 yuan / ton; Shanghai self-picked up 16 years Hong Manli tobacco tablets reference 16550-16600 yuan / ton
.
The quotation is for reference only, and the specific actual order is negotiated
.
Third, in terms of inventory, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone has entered a downward channel, and as of mid-August, the inventory of the free trade zone has declined
for four consecutive periods.
Current stocks total 226,400 tonnes, down 07,200 tonnes
from early August.
Among them, the stock of natural rubber was 171,300 tons, a decrease of 09,200 tons from the first half of August, and the inventory fell by more than 5%; The inventory of synthetic rubber was 50,900 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons over the previous period; the inventory of composite rubber was 04,200 tons, a decrease of 01,000 tons
.
Fourth, in terms of demand, since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of China's narrow passenger car sales has gradually increased, and the current growth rate has exceeded 5%
for two consecutive months.
Negative factors such as the overdraft effect of the early purchase tax, the reduction of new energy vehicle subsidies, and the off-season of the industry have been gradually eliminated, and terminal demand has grown
steadily.
Affected by the peak consumption season and the cancellation of purchase tax incentives, there will be a definite concentrated purchase phenomenon in the fourth quarter of this year, which is conducive to the downstream consumption
of Tianjiao.
V.
Future market forecast: This network analysis preliminary prediction that at present, natural rubber is digesting inventory, and the situation of oversupply has been improved
.
Approaching the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season, it is expected that the spot quotation of Tianjiao will still have room for growth next month
.