Analysis of the market trend of natural rubber standard rubber in April

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are as follows:

On the macro front, at the beginning of this month, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States remained at a record low of 267,000, indicating that the labor market is performing solidly despite the slowdown in the US economy; Domestically, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.
2% in March, returning to expansion territory
.
At the end of the month, the US dollar continued to weaken, pushing gold and silver to continue to rise, and gold futures once again hit a new one-year closing high; Domestically, GDP in the first quarter was 158526 billion yuan, an increase of 6.
7%
year-on-year at comparable prices.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fallen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 12,300 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 12,300 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 12,500 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton; The 15-year quotation of private full latex in Yunnan was about 12,300 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the end of this month, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline to 248,300 tons, down 08,700 tons, or 3.
4%, from 257,000 tons at the end of March
.
Specifically, the decrease in inventory is still affected by the decline in natural rubber and composite rubber inventory, and the inventory of synthetic rubber has risen
significantly.
However, the sky rubber in the area still shows the phenomenon that the warehouse is scarce and the outbound is relatively active
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, this month, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 71.
54%, up 1.
28%; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 75.
96%, up 0.
52%, and the operating rate continued to rise last week, which is the performance of short-term downstream consumption improvement, which is good for rubber prices, from the seasonal factors of the past year, the later operating rate will maintain a continuous upward trend
.
Watch for whether the late-stage operating rate can sustain this upward momentum
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, domestic liquidity is loose, and the macro background is basically warm
.
From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the lack of rainfall, the cutting time of rubber-producing countries was postponed to late May, and the supply pressure of new rubber is expected to appear in June, and domestic cutting is also delayed, so the future supply pressure is still difficult to pose a threat
to rubber prices.
The downstream demand side still maintains an optimistic trend, and the price increase of tire companies is expected to transmit a good upward momentum
to the upstream raw material side.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term, so it is still recommended to maintain a bullish idea
.