Analysis of the factors affecting the corn production this year

Introduction: after China's accession to the WTO, the import and export situation of corn will change, the domestic market will face the impact of foreign cheap corn, forcing the traditional corn production pattern and production mode to change, and the corn planting area will also be affected, thus affecting the corn output At present, the northern spring sowing corn area is entering the stage of preparing for cultivation and sowing, and then the Huanghuaihai summer sowing corn area will also enter the stage of preparing for cultivation and sowing This year's corn production situation is more critical First, the impact of China's accession to the WTO on corn production The influence of China's accession to the WTO on domestic corn production is mainly in two aspects First, the old production pattern will be broken, the regionalization of corn production will be further concentrated, and the production advantages of the spring sowing corn area in Northeast China and the summer sowing corn area in Huanghuaihai sea will continue to be maintained, because these two corn planting areas, especially the spring corn area in North China, are one of the three gold corn belts in the world, which are suitable for production It is difficult for other crops to fill such a large planting space for corn growth On the contrary, corn production in some scattered corn growing areas in the South will gradually shrink until it finally exits the market Second, corn varieties will be optimized The area of common corn with poor quality, overstocked and hard to sell, and lack of market competitiveness will continue to shrink The area of some high-quality special corn with good market and strong demand will expand In this respect, Jilin Province, a major corn producing province, is ahead of the rest In terms of structural adjustment, it has cut down the area of ordinary corn, increased the area of "three high" corn, and established a certain number of planting bases for feed corn, industrial raw material corn and edible corn In addition, it will establish an export base of 5 million mu of high-quality corn to completely change the original corn planting structure and variety structure Second, the impact of national policies On the one hand, it shows the adjustment policy of agricultural planting structure, on the other hand, it shows the policy of returning farmland to forest and grass in the process of western development In recent years, China's grain supply exceeds the demand, especially the contradiction of unreasonable variety structure is becoming more and more prominent Therefore, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have a long-term vision and put forward to increase the adjustment of agricultural planting structure, take advantage of the present favorable opportunity of sufficient supply of grain and other agricultural products, and expand the scale of returning farmland to forest and grass This year, a total of 14 million mu of farmland will be returned to forest, barren mountains and wastelands for afforestation, and returning farmland to surface With the increase of plot, the sown area of corn may also be affected Third, the influence of corn price trend Since the second half of last year, the price of corn in China has been declining steadily At present, the delivery price of corn plate in the province is 980 yuan / ton, and there is no market, few people are interested in it The price of corn in the same period of last year is 1050 yuan / ton, with a large difference The continuous decline of the price of corn has affected the enthusiasm of farmers to grow corn As in last year, the phenomenon of large-scale corn expansion in the main production areas will not happen this year It appears that, in view of the current situation that it is difficult to overstock corn and face the impact of cheap corn in the United States, farmers may have the tendency to switch to cash crops and vegetables this year 4 The impact of farmers' grain input In recent years, affected by the fall of grain prices and natural disasters, farmers' profits have decreased, and their income has grown slowly The growth of farmers' income is significantly slower than the economic growth in the same period, and the elasticity coefficient of income growth has been greatly reduced According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2001, the per capita net income of farmers in China increased by 113 yuan, 5% over the same period last year After deducting the price factor, the actual increase was 4.2%, which reversed the declining trend of farmers' income for several consecutive years Due to the small income base of farmers, although the relative number of growth is large, the absolute number is not large, and the increase of agricultural production input is limited 5 Climate impact In the case of a certain planting area and no significant increase in farmers' input, climate factors play a decisive role in corn production China has a vast territory, and agricultural production conditions vary greatly in different regions Agricultural production facilities are backward, and the ability to resist disasters is poor Most regions rely on the weather for food Every year, food production is greatly affected by climate factors Good climate conditions lead to a good harvest and gas When conditions are poor, grain production will be reduced From the current situation, the drought in the north of China is more serious, and the situation of spring drought is serious The drought has spread to the northeast, North China and most provinces and regions in the northwest Taking Jilin Province as an example, at present, the situation of spring drought is severe, and the problem of lack of moisture in dry land and paddy field is very prominent According to preliminary statistics, there are 45.252 million mu of dry land in Jilin Province, 20.67 million mu more than last year's 24.58 million mu, with a serious lack of moisture area of 22.63 million mu There are 2.44 million mu of paddy field in Jilin Province, with a serious lack of water area of 1.69 million mu If there is not enough precipitation in the sowing time, it may affect the corn sowing, and then affect the corn yield In addition, experts predict that El Nino may occur again this year If so, corn production in the two major corn producing areas in Northeast and North China will be greatly affected Based on the above factor analysis, this year's corn planting area is basically stable at about 24 million hectares, which is equal to or slightly less than that of last year The probability of a significant increase in total corn production is not great If the climate conditions are not good, this year's corn production will still be a year of less than average, and the total corn production will hover around 112 million tons In the case of no significant increase in planting area and input, even if the climate conditions are well matched, the yield increase of corn will not be too large and will remain at a low level (Jilin Branch of the State Grain and oil information center, at its discretion)