An analysis of the factors affecting corn production this year

Introduction: This is the first year of China's accession to the WTO, which is a very critical year for China's agricultural production, because the biggest impact of China's accession to the WTO is agriculture, especially corn industry After entering WTO, the import and export situation of corn will change, the domestic market will face the impact of foreign cheap corn, forcing the traditional corn production pattern and mode to change, and the corn planting area will also be affected, which will affect the corn yield At present, the northern spring sowing corn area is entering the stage of preparing for cultivation and sowing, and then the Huanghuaihai summer sowing corn area will also enter the stage of preparing for cultivation and sowing What is the situation of corn production this year? The following is a brief analysis of the situation mastered by the author in combination with the actual investigation content First, the impact of China's accession to the WTO on corn production The influence of China's accession to the WTO on domestic corn production is mainly in two aspects First, the old production pattern will be broken, the regionalization of corn production will be further concentrated, and the production advantages of the spring sowing corn area in Northeast China and the summer sowing corn area in Huanghuaihai sea will continue to be maintained, because these two corn planting areas, especially the spring corn area in North China, are one of the three gold corn belts in the world, which are suitable for production It's difficult for other crops to fill such a large planting space for corn growth On the contrary, corn production in some scattered corn planting areas in the South will gradually shrink until it finally leaves the market Second, corn varieties will be optimized The area of ordinary corn without market will continue to shrink with poor varieties, overstocked and hard to sell, lack of market competitiveness, and lack of market The one with good market demand will continue to grow The area of some high-quality special corn will be expanded In this respect, Jilin Province, a major corn producing province, is ahead of the rest In terms of structural adjustment, it has cut down the area of ordinary corn, increased the area of "three high" corn, and established a certain number of planting bases for feed corn, industrial raw material corn and edible corn In addition, it will establish an export base of 5 million mu of high-quality corn to completely change the original corn planting structure and variety structure Second, the impact of national policies On the one hand, the impact of national policies on corn production is reflected in the adjustment policy of agricultural planting structure; on the other hand, it is reflected in the policy of returning farmland to forest and grass in the process of western development In recent years, China's grain supply exceeds the demand, especially the contradiction between the varieties and the structure is becoming more and more prominent Therefore, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have a long-term vision and put forward to increase the adjustment of agricultural planting structure, take advantage of the favorable opportunity of sufficient supply of grain and other agricultural products, and expand the scale of returning farmland to forest and grass This year, a total of 14 million mu of farmland will be returned to forest, barren mountains and wastelands for afforestation, and returning farmland to surface With the increase of plot, the sown area of corn may also be affected Third, the influence of corn price trend Since the second half of last year, the price of corn in China has been declining steadily At present, the delivery price of corn plate in the province is 980 yuan / ton, whether there is a market or not, and few people are interested in it The price of corn in the same period of last year is 1050 yuan / ton, with a large difference The continuous decline of corn price has affected the enthusiasm of farmers to plant corn As in last year, the phenomenon of large-scale corn expansion in the main production areas will not happen this year It will appear that, in view of the current situation that the corn backlog is difficult to sell and the impact of cheap corn in the United States, farmers may have the tendency to switch to cash crops and vegetables this year 4 The impact of farmers' grain input In recent years, affected by the fall of grain prices and natural disasters, farmers' profits have decreased, their incomes have grown slowly, and their incomes have grown significantly slower than the growth of the economy in the same period The elasticity coefficient of income growth has been greatly reduced According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the per capita net income of Chinese farmers in 2001 has increased by 113 yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 5%, and the actual growth has been 4.2% after deducting the price factor, This year, the growth of farmers' income has reversed the trend of farmers' income declining for several consecutive years Due to the small income base of farmers, although the relative growth is large, the absolute number is not large, and the increase of agricultural production input is limited, which is stable at the level of recent years, and the unit yield is maintained at the level of last year 5 Climate impact In the case of a certain planting area and no significant increase in farmers' input, climate factors play a decisive role in corn production China has a vast territory, and agricultural production conditions vary greatly in different regions Agricultural production facilities are backward, and the ability to resist disasters is poor Most regions rely on the weather for food Every year, food production is greatly affected by climate factors Good climate conditions lead to a good harvest and gas When conditions are poor, grain production will be reduced From the current situation, the drought in the north of China is more serious, and the situation of spring drought is serious The drought has spread to the northeast, North China and most provinces and regions in the northwest Taking Jilin Province as an example, at present, the situation of spring drought is severe, and the problem of lack of moisture in dry land and paddy field is very prominent According to preliminary statistics, there are 45.252 million mu of dry land in Jilin Province, 20.67 million mu more than last year's 24.58 million mu, with a serious lack of moisture area of 22.63 million mu There are 2.44 million mu of paddy field in Jilin Province, with a serious lack of water area of 1.69 million mu If there is not enough precipitation in the sowing period, it may affect the corn sowing and the corn yield In addition, experts predict that El Nino may occur again this year If so, corn production in the two major corn producing areas in Northeast and North China will be greatly affected Based on the above factor analysis, this year's corn planting area is basically stable at about 24 million hectares, which is equal to or slightly less than that of last year The probability of a significant increase in total corn production is not great If the climate conditions are not good, this year's corn production will still be a year of less than average, and the total corn production will hover around 112 million tons In the case of no significant increase in planting area and input, even if the climate conditions are well matched, the corn production increase will not be too large, but will remain at a low level, and the output in that year will not meet the demand If there is no large-scale import of foreign corn, the domestic corn inventory will continue to be digested, and the corn price is expected to continue to rise slightly (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: