Analysis of the domestic PVC market in March

The reasons for the decline in PVC market prices this month are as follows:

Macro: At the beginning of this month, the US federal government budget deficit in February was $192 billion, down slightly by 0.
6% from the same period last year; Domestically, affected by tail factors, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI fell to 0.
8% in February, far lower than market expectations
.
At the end of the month, the latest data released by the US Treasury Department showed that the US federal government budget deficit in February was $192 billion, down slightly by 0.
6%
from the same period last year.
Domestically, affected by tail factors, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI fell to 0.
8% in February, far lower than market expectations
.
At present, PVC market prices are supported by rising factors, and PVC fundamentals have risen
slightly.

Upstream market: the price of raw calcium carbide in mainstream areas remains stable, the quotation in individual regions is lowered, the arrival of calcium carbide by PVC enterprises is unbalanced, and it still takes time to digest the unloading truck, and enterprises maintain wait-and-see
for the time being.
The contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic calcium carbide market is still prominent, and the price is in a state of
stalemate.
CFR Northeast Asia prices fell $5/mt to close at $1139.
5-1141.
5/mt, and CFR Southeast Asia prices settled steady at $1034.
5-1036.
5/mt
.

Spot market: This month, the price of some domestic PVC spot markets fell
.
North China calcium carbide law reported 6260 yuan / ton, down 20; ethylene law reported 6630 yuan / ton, down 40; East China calcium carbide law reported 6310 yuan / ton, down 20
.
South China calcium carbide method reported 6310 yuan / ton, down 40, ethylene method 6850 tons, down 50
.
The price of raw materials was basically flat, East China reported 3,000 yuan, flat, and Northwest reported 2,600 yuan, flat
.

Future market forecast: This month, the PVC physical market rose slightly, the spot market transaction improved, the quotation of traders was raised, and the quotation of some upstream production enterprises was also moderately raised
.
On the whole, the current shipment pressure in the PVC market is still unabated, and the inventory of major ports, terminals and warehouses is high; Manufacturers still maintain a high operating load, while some provinces in North China have strict environmental protection inspections, some downstream processing plants have been hindered in production, the contradiction between supply and demand imbalance is prominent, and prices have fluctuated lower
.
The recovery of production of downstream product enterprises is not as expected, while most of them still have stock inventory to be digested, and affected by environmental protection supervision, some downstream product enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have been hindered, the overall market demand is general, and downstream manufacturers are mostly purchasing
on demand.
In the short term
, the PVC market will be mainly sideways.
It is expected that there is still a possibility
of a correction in the PVC market in the short term.