Analysis of the domestic PVC market in August

The reasons for the increase in prices in the PVC market this month are analyzed as follows:

Macro, according to statistics, the operating profit of retail enterprises in the first half of this year increased by 7.
6% year-on-year, and the recovery trend was prominent
.
In the first half of the year, the GDP was 3.
8149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.
9%
at comparable prices.
In terms of quarters, the first quarter increased by 6.
9% year-on-year, and the second quarter increased by 6.
9%.

On the whole, China's economy is stable and improving
.

Upstream market: Crude oil prices fluctuated to the downside
in August.
The September crude futures contract closed up 46 cents, or 0.
93 percent, at $
50.
17 a barrel on July 31.
Brent crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.
25 percent, to $52.
65 a barrel
.
October crude oil futures on Aug.
30 closed down $0.
48, or 1.
03 percent, at $45.
96 a barrel
.
Brent crude October futures closed down $1.
14, or 2.
19 percent, at $50.
86 a barrel
.

Spot market: The overall trend of the domestic PVC market this month is acceptable, supported by the sharp rise in futures, the spot market quotation rose slightly again, but the terminal enterprises are more seriously affected by environmental protection, there are more parking, and the general intention to take goods is affected, and the spot market shipments are general
.
Type 5 PVC reference price: the current mainstream acceptance factory in Shandong is 7300-7400 yuan / ton; The acceptance price of PVC enterprises in Inner Mongolia to the north is 7200-7250 yuan / ton; The mainstream factory in Hebei is 7250-7450 yuan / ton acceptance
.
Ethylene enterprises in East China are acceptable, and the mainstream delivery price is 7600-7700 yuan / ton
.

In terms of inventory: the overall trend of the domestic PVC market this month is acceptable, futures have risen sharply, prices have actively followed, terminal procurement enthusiasm has increased, and social inventories have continued to decline slightly
.
According to statistics, last week's inventory volume fell by 4.
01% month-on-month and 23.
82%
year-on-year.
Turning into this week, the PVC market extended its rally, and it is expected that the total inventory of the market will run in a slight downward trend this week
.

Future market forecast: As of the end of this month, the domestic PVC market quotation rose slightly, the downstream demand was better than last week, and the merchants were more motivated to purchase
.
Downstream manufacturers are willing to stock up, and the PVC market has a good
trading atmosphere.
At present, the downstream demand of the PVC market is relatively stable
.
As the favorable gradually digests, it is expected that the PVC market will continue to rise
.