Analysis of the average price trend of national standard rubber in 2017

In 2017, the price of Shanghai rubber futures showed a downward trend of shock and downward as a whole, which can be divided into five stages:

The first stage - strong rise (January-mid-February): Southern Thailand has been hit by continuous floods causing a shortage of natural rubber raw materials, and in the speculative atmosphere of the future reduction in the production of tianjiao and the high domestic commodity market, the capital has moved in the wind, and the main force of Shanghai rubber has continued the "bull market" since the fourth quarter of 2016, from about 18,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 22,310 yuan / ton, hitting a high point in nearly four years
.

The second stage - continuous decline (mid-February to early June): In February, Thailand's rubber production did not fall but rose, and the Thai government continuously dumped more than 200,000 tons, the rise of rubber in the early stage stimulated the market to the overall bullish price of rubber, resulting in the entire industrial chain before the Spring Festival to actively replenish so that domestic inventory is at an absolute high level, supply and demand from a tight balance to an oversupply pattern
。 Coupled with the downward pressure on the macroeconomy, China's monetary policy has changed from loose to stable and neutral, financial supervision has become stricter, commodity market funds have fled profits, commodities have collectively fallen, and the Shanghai rubber market has turned sharply down, opening a continuous decline mode of up to 4 months, falling 10,000 points from the highest point in January to the lowest point in June, a cumulative decline of 45%, returning to the starting point
of last year's wave of rising market.

The third stage - bottoming out (early June-early September): After June, thanks to the improvement of macro data, the strong rebound of black series drove the overall bullish sentiment of the industrial products market, industrial products showed a rotational pattern, coupled with the strengthening of synthetic rubber prices, Shanghai rubber bottoming in the price depression stabilized, and launched a wave of rebound market driven by funds, by early September, the main force of Shanghai rubber quickly rose to a maximum of 17840 yuan / ton
.

The fourth stage - rapid decline (mid-to-late September): Due to the lower than expected China's economic data in August, the commodity market atmosphere weakened, the speculation of funds for industrial products fully ebbed, coupled with the ITRC meeting did not reach an agreement to cut production or restrict exports, in the absence of expected bullish support, the confidence of Shanghai rubber bulls collapsed, a large amount of capital flowed, Shanghai rubber fell off a cliff, this stage of Shanghai rubber main force fell more than 24%
from the high point in early September.

The fifth stage - shock finishing (October-November): In the fourth quarter, the southeast is also in the peak season of rubber production, the domestic import volume of tianjiao has increased significantly, the explicit inventory of tianjiao is high, the market supply pressure is huge, and the downstream demand has not shown bright spots, and the fundamentals are not enough to support the sharp rebound of tianjiao, so after the National Day, Shanghai rubber maintained a sideways trend in the range of 13,000-14,000 yuan / ton
.

From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the new planting area of global tianjiao began to decrease significantly after reaching its peak in 2010-2012, and the last supply growth peak of tianjiao may appear in 2017-2019, and the demand growth rate is not as good as the supply growth rate, so it is expected that the global natural rubber is still in a loose situation
in 2018.

Looking forward to 2018, the price of Shanghai rubber may fluctuate widely, and it is estimated that the price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber will operate in the range of 12,000-18,000 yuan / ton
.
Among them, in the first half of the year, due to the support of the supply gap period and the arrival of the domestic heavy truck "gold, silver and four" demand season, Shanghai rubber may fluctuate upward; In the second half of the year, under the supply pressure of Southeast Asia entering the peak season of rubber production, Shanghai rubber may fluctuate
downward.