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According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the domestic spot copper price rose and fell in the first quarter of 2016, and the overall trend was in a volatile upward trend
.
Represented by Yangtze River spot 1# copper, the average price in early January was about 36250 yuan / ton, and at the end of March to 36760 yuan / ton, the price increase was about 1.
41%.
The trend of copper prices in the first quarter of 2016 can be roughly divided into the following stages:
In the first period, from early to mid-January, copper prices at this stage fluctuated and fell, with the lowest falling below 34,820 yuan / ton
.
The plunge in the A-share market in early January caused panic in the market, coupled with the official PMI index in January was below the critical value for six consecutive months, weak macro data raised concerns about China's economic prospects, coupled with weak market consumption before the Spring Festival, multiple factors combined to put pressure on copper prices
.
The second stage, from late January to late February, is when copper prices basically show range-bound markets
.
A period of time before and after the Spring Festival is the off-season of the copper market, industrial production shrinks due to holiday factors, the copper market oversupply pattern is obvious, copper prices have falling demand, but the market occasionally good news support, copper prices decline is limited
.
In the third stage, from the beginning of March to the end of March, copper prices rose again in this stage, reaching a maximum of about
38170 yuan / ton.
In March, most downstream companies opened the stocking mode for peak season production, and copper prices rebounded in anticipation of improved consumption
.
In general, in the first quarter, the consumption performance of the copper market in the first two months was weak, the oversupply pattern suppressed the copper market, and there was a demand for copper prices to fall, even if there was a rebound, the height of the rebound was limited
.
Since March, the continuous downward trend of copper prices has come to an end, showing signs of stopping the decline and picking up, because the domestic peak season is coming, copper consumption is expected to improve, coupled with the short-term macro environment, which has a positive effect
on market sentiment.
In terms of trends, in the short term, April is still the traditional consumption season, there is room for rebound, but the actual consumption of the market still needs to be verified, and in the medium and long term, with the end of the copper demand season in May, the rise in copper prices may not be sustainable
.
