Analysis of domestic PVC market this week (3.5-3.9)

The reasons for the decline in PVC market prices this week are as follows:

In the upstream market, naphtha CF Japan reported 557.
5 US dollars / ton, down 1.
46%; FOB Singapore was trading at $60.
65 a barrel, down 1.
59%.

ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 1335, up $25; CFR Southeast Asia was trading at $1250 a tonne, up $
20.
Domestic calcium carbide prices were stable, with East China reporting 3370 yuan, flat, and Northwest reporting 3120 yuan, flat
.

Spot market: PVC China CIF price was flat at $980; North China calcium carbide law reported 6420 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan; ethylene law reported 6600 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan; East China calcium carbide method reported 6300 yuan / ton, flat, ethylene method 6700 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan; South China calcium carbide method 6400, flat, ethylene method 7000 yuan, flat
.

On the supply side, the caustic soda market bucked the trend
.
Liquid alkali manufacturers in major producing areas such as Shandong and Hebei have successively raised their factory quotations, and some quotations have increased by more than
10% compared with before the Spring Festival.
Due to the chlor-alkali enterprise equipment, the spring maintenance is concentrated in
March ~ April.
In anticipation of increasing terminal demand in March, the lack of supply has strengthened the
market's rally mentality.

Future market forecast: This week, the overall narrow fluctuation of the domestic PVC market, the main PVC contract rose slightly, the futures price was subject to high inventory, the high level fell, and the idea
of wide volatility was maintained.
The calcium carbide market is cautious and wait-and-see, mainly paying attention to the changes in the start of calcium carbide furnaces in Ningxia, and there are sporadic increases in calcium carbide factory quotations, and the overall center of gravity has not moved
.
In Ningxia, the news of calcium carbide enterprises limiting production in winter, some enterprises initially requested to stop until March 15 to the end of the
heating season.
The Northwest Consortium has dealt a blow
to market confidence in being fined.
Raw calcium carbide enterprises are still on the edge of profit and loss, and due to the influence of power rationing and furnace conditions, the production of calcium carbide is insufficient, and the output is difficult to continue to rise, and the supply increase is relatively slow; On the other hand, the caustic soda industry has better profits and a higher
operating rate in the industry.
We believe that although the supply of calcium carbide is still in a contradictory state, supply and demand are still unbalanced, and it is necessary to digest inventory to ensure normal production, but the plate futures price has been basically reflected
.
PVC merchants gradually ship, the downstream market purchases on demand, and the demand is stable
.
On the demand side, exports still account for a relatively large proportion, and export profits remain high to support the steady upward
trend of demand.
It is recommended that investors operate with wide range volatility ideas
.