Analysis of domestic PVC market this week (1.3-1.6)

According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the spot price performance of the PVC market this week closed slightly lower
.
The average price of PVC spot at the beginning of the week was 6284 yuan / ton, and the weekend price was 6274 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton, down 0.
16%.

This week's merchant shipments are light, the overall market atmosphere is weak, the transaction situation is not ideal, and the trading atmosphere is lower than last week
.

The reasons for the decline in PVC market prices this week are as follows:

On a macro front, this week, the number of ADP payrolls in the United States increased by 153,000 in December, less than the expected 175,000, and the previous value increased by 216,000 revised to an increase of 215,000
.
The ADP employment data is known as the "small non-farm", indicating that the US non-farm payrolls data is not as good as expected
.
Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI recorded 51.
9% in December, jumping 1 percentage point from November, but the overall situation of China's manufacturing industry is still not optimistic, and how to enhance product competitiveness and meet the diverse needs of the market is a problem
worth paying attention to.
At present, the price of PVC market is not supported by rising factors, and PVC fundamentals have fallen
slightly.

In the upstream market, calcium carbide shipments were smooth this week, companies had no inventory, and there were not many
low prices.
Factory price of calcium carbide in various places: 2600-2650 yuan / ton in Wuhai and Ordos areas of Inner Mongolia; Ningxia Shizuishan area 2600-2650 yuan / ton; Zhongwei area 2650-2700 yuan / ton; Shaanxi 2650 yuan/ton; Gansu area 2750-2800 yuan / ton
.
The actual transaction price is flexible, and the arrival of calcium carbide in various places is
acceptable.

Spot market: this week's domestic PVC market fluctuated and sorted, calcium carbide PVC mainstream quotation in East China 6180-6280 yuan / ton, down 135 yuan; The mainstream quotation in South China was 6080-6180 yuan / ton, down 185 yuan; The mainstream quotation in North China was 5850-6050 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan
.
The mainstream quotation of ethylene PVC in East China was 7000-7250 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in South China was 7000-7200 yuan / ton, down 175 yuan; The mainstream quotation in North China was 6700-6900 yuan / ton, down 225 yuan
.

Future market forecast: This week, the PVC physical market trend is volatile and falling
.
Fundamentally, the domestic calcium carbide PVC market is slightly stable
after the previous shock adjustment.
Among them, the downstream procurement in East China is not smooth, and the atmosphere is slightly dull, while the market quotation in South China has recovered due to the decrease in arrivals, but it is still necessary to wait and see
in the actual transaction.
In terms of ethylene PVC, manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the market transaction center is
deadlocked.
In the short term
, the PVC market will be mainly sideways.
It is expected that the PVC market will not have much room
to fall in the short term.