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According to the monitoring data of the cable network, this month, the spot price performance of the PVC market fluctuated upward
.
The average price of PVC spot at the beginning of the month was 5940 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 6738 yuan / ton, which was 798 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month, an increase of 13.
43%.
This month, merchants shipped positively, the overall market atmosphere was better, the transaction situation was more ideal, and the trading atmosphere was upward
compared with the previous month.
The reasons for the increase in prices in the PVC market this month are analyzed as follows:
Macro: Earlier this month, Japan announced a revised gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2016, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 0.
7%; Significant upward revision from the initial value; Domestically, the official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.
4% in August, a 22-month high
.
At the end of the month, the US consumer price index rose 0.
2% seasonally adjusted month-on-month in August, the biggest increase since February this year; Domestically, from January to August, the actual amount of foreign funds used in the country was 548.
83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.
5%.
At present, PVC market prices are supported by rising factors, and PVC fundamentals have risen
slightly.
Upstream market: domestic calcium carbide prices are stable, enterprise inventory is not much, shipments are stable, and factory price adjustments are limited
.
Factory price of calcium carbide in various places: 2400-2500 yuan / ton in Wuhai and Ordos areas of Inner Mongolia; Ningxia Shizuishan area 2400-2450 yuan/ton; Zhongwei area 2500-2550 yuan / ton; Shaanxi area 2400-2500 yuan / ton; Gansu area 2500-2600 yuan / ton
.
Asian ethylene prices were stable, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $1154.
5-1156.
5/mt and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $1039.
5-1041.
5/mt
.
Spot market: This month, the domestic PVC market continued to improve, forced by the impact of new transportation regulations, East and South China have limited arrivals, traders continue to increase prices in limited quantities
.
At present, the inventory of upstream manufacturers is low, manufacturers have few goods and raise prices, and some continue to be closed and not reported
.
High-priced transactions are general, and the downstream products industry stops work or consumes inventory to resist high prices, and demand has shrunk
.
Future market forecast: the domestic PVC market price is generally stable, individual shocks are adjusted, the market currency is loose, and the commodity market is picking up
strongly.
At present, the second round of environmental inspections will kick off in October, and some local governments have already preemptively launched their own environmental inspections, and individual PVC companies in Shandong have said that the start of construction has been affected
.
At present, the tight supply of PVC is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the supply of individual enterprises has been pre-sold
.
On the whole, manufacturers raise prices, traders follow up, downstream resistance to high price sentiment breeds, business society rubber and plastic branch PVC analyst Fan Tinglu expects that the domestic PVC market will enter the stage
of sorting.
It is expected that the fundamentals are long and short, and the futures price will maintain range-bound
volatility in the short term.
