Analysis on the Trend of Domestic Corn Price

Introduction: In recent years, from the perspective of the price trend of the national corn market, the prices in the northeast region remain firm, while those in the southern region have declined continuously At present, the average transaction price of vehicle plate in Jilin region is 1060 yuan / ton Although the price shows a stable trend, it is not pleasant from the perspective of the transaction situation The market atmosphere with and without price is obviously strengthened, while the prices in southern Jiangsu and other places have decreased from 1280 yuan / ton in the early stage To 1210 yuan / ton, the industry's expectation of price bullish in the later period is seriously under pressure, and the future market price is worrying Based on the comprehensive analysis of the reasons for the decline of corn price in recent months, there are mainly the following aspects: 1 The listing of new grain has become the main reason for the current pressure on corn price At present, corn harvesting work in North China and Huanghuai has been basically completed, and various storage enterprises are busy with acquisition work This year, due to the good weather and effective artificial protection measures, the new corn output in North China and Huanghuai is good, and the quality is better than that in previous years At the same time, corn in North China and Huanghuai is withdrawn from the protection price this autumn, and each region sets its own price according to the market situation At present The pattern has led to further decline and increase in corn prices, so although the quality preference, but the price is low Northern new corn is also about to go on the market The air is strong in the market The new corn with high quality and low price in the South and the pressure of new grain listing in the north have a strong impact on the current market 2 Market rumors aggravate the market bearish atmosphere In the early stage, when the price of corn in China continued to rise, it was reported that the state intended to convert the national stored grain into commodity grain for sale, and then increased the promotion to restrain the high price rise In addition, according to qiaoxun, Jilin, China's largest corn production province, planned to sell 2.25 million tons of surplus corn before the end of September According to the news, this batch of corn will be sold to China in large quantities The spread of the two news has played a restraining role in the rising corn price in the early stage However, according to the actual situation, the state has not issued a document on selling state grain reserves, while Jilin's administrative measures for selling 2.25 million tons of grain are not effective due to seed reasons, which shows that the media has a guiding role in the development direction of the market 3 The climate and environment have been improved, and the output is expected to increase After nearly three months of drought in Northeast China, it was alleviated in the middle of June, with the increasing rainfall and the continuous improvement of corn growth People's psychological expectation of autumn grain production reduction was weakened At this time, the climate factors that played a huge role in promoting the price in the early stage appeared to be weak 4 The grain consuming enterprises have abundant inventory, strong purchase intention and reduced demand Some feed enterprises in the South made a large number of stock replenishment in the process of corn price rising in the early stage In the process of stock replenishment, the production cost was increasing and the liquidity was relatively reduced However, under the influence of the continuous relief of drought and some bad news, the wait-and-see mentality of holding money gradually increased, resulting in the situation that the market supply was greater than the demand 5 The progress of export is slow, the phenomenon of resale is increasing, and the role of promotion is weakening Influenced by various negative factors, the price of domestic corn fell at the end of July, and the export form was optimistic again In August, the export bidding results were significant, which played a supporting role in the price However, from the current progress, although the price of domestic corn fell deeply compared with the previous period, the price level is still higher than that of foreign countries Because of the poor quality of domestic corn, it is difficult for traders to find it Purchasers and export forms are in a deadlock, and some areas have the phenomenon of resale With the approaching of import, this phenomenon may be further increased, and the support in the early stage will be weaker At the same time, due to the unfavorable export forms, the port backlog will be serious, which will hinder the domestic price 6 The competent authorities stimulate the enterprises to reduce inventory, increase the market supply quantity, and have a lot of resistance to price rise In order to expand the sales, stimulate the storage enterprises to leave the warehouse, adjust the distribution methods of grain storage subsidies and so on, in order to reduce the grain sector's reluctance to sell and stimulate the large amount of grain out of the warehouse, the market supply will increase in a short time, and the market price will be affected 7 The dominant position of feed raw materials weakens, and the price rises and loses the market In the early stage, due to the sharp rise of corn price, the purchase direction of feed enterprises in South China has changed Low price raw materials such as wheat and rice have been purchased to replace high-level corn In addition, China's wheat inventory pressure is heavy The country will increase the selling of aged wheat, and the demand for feed raw materials will continue to increase The dominant position of corn raw materials will be weakened, so the demand will be affected, and the price rise will lose the market 。
8 With the increasing pressure of China's accession to the WTO, the price will be depressed According to the relevant departments, China will join the WTO in December this year After entering the WTO, China will increase its export quota for corn, and a large number of low-priced corn from abroad will also flow in The price of domestic corn will be severely depressed and the price rise is hard to say To sum up, the falling trend of China's corn market in recent months has been constructed It is impossible for the price to appear the development pattern of price rising instead of falling after the listing of last autumn's grain In the later stage, the space for price rising in China's corn market will continue to shrink, and the price will be mainly in the form of oscillating and falling (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: