Analysis and forecast of domestic corn market price trend in March

Introduction: review of corn price changes in the domestic corn market in February review of corn price changes in the domestic corn market in February: the sales area in Shanghai increased from 1060-1070 yuan / ton (arrival) at the beginning of February to 1080 yuan / ton at the end of the month, Jiangsu increased from 1100-1150 yuan / ton (arrival) at the beginning of the month to 1130-1140 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and Shekou port price was stable at 1090 yuan / ton; the price of vehicle plate in Jilin Province rose from 920 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 930-940 yuan / ton, and the closing price of Dalian Port rose from 1020-1030 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1030-1040 yuan / ton at the end of the month Generally speaking, the price of corn fell slightly after the Spring Festival in February After the low-level stable operation, the bottom rebounded at the end of the month, showing a staged V-shaped rebound It is expected that if there is no sudden policy sell-off in March, the price will still maintain a stable upward trend The price will fluctuate a lot and change a little in the month, but the price bottom will gradually rise The specific analysis is as follows: UAA 1, supply and demand On the macro level, the latest information center of the Ministry of agriculture predicts that China's total corn output in 2002 will be 120 million tons, and the predicted total output will gradually decrease compared with the predicted maximum value of 125 million tons, while the consumption will rise and the inventory will decline This year, it is estimated that the export will still reach 10 million tons, which will contribute to the overall price rise this year Current market supply The purchase price of corn in Hebei and Shandong tends to rise steadily, but the number of corn sold to the sales area is gradually decreasing, and the number of manufacturers in the sales area turning to the northeast for purchase is gradually increasing; the State Reserve corn in the main sales areas such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang has started to enter the warehouse, and more corn is transferred from the Northeast; the export grain is mainly northeast grain, which will increase the market demand for Northeast grain However, the purchase price in Northeast China has increased The purchase price before the festival in Jilin Province is 680-740 yuan / ton (25-27 water), and the current purchase price is 760-800 yuan / ton (22-25) Water), although the purchase price has increased, the purchase quantity is not large, and some enterprises still have not completed the purchase quantity At the same time, the price of domestic sales area has increased and the export price is better, which urges the enterprises to receive grain with the price It is expected that the purchase price will still rise, which will drive the price of corn car board up in the production area At present, there is no low price grain supply, rotation reserve and other operations will not operate in the near future, while northeast grain supply is affected by cost and transportation Only when the price in the sales area is stable at a high level, dealers can actively operate domestic trade grain In the near future, consumption will also remain stable With the improvement of weather, the breeding industry will gradually become active, driving the recovery of demand UAA 2 The export quantity and price are still good, which supports the domestic price According to the statistics of the customs in January 2003, China's corn export volume was 570300 tons, an increase of 148.1% over the same period of 2002 However, the actual export volume will exceed 1 million tons It is expected that the export volume in February will increase significantly, and the figure released by the customs will exceed 1 million tons It is estimated that the export volume of corn in China will exceed 3.5 million tons in the first quarter The export channels have been continuously expanded In addition to the traditional South Korea and Southeast Asia and other foreign countries, Brazil has also been actively operating and selling to Taiwan, Iran, Mozambique and other countries In the second half of 2003, Brazil's domestic supply may again be insufficient At present, Brazil has completed the health inspection of China's corn to prepare for the future import At present, the export price of China's corn is fob105-108 US dollars / ton, and the shipping period of the United States from March to April is CNF $130-131 tons in South Korea The export price also slightly drops with the fall of the international market price, but it is still higher than the export price of the same period in 2002 (the shipping period of China's corn in May is $101 tons, and the shipping period of the United States from March to April is CNF $112 tons in South Korea) UAA 3, near spring sowing, planting area and weather conditions are increasingly becoming the focus of attention The corn structure will be adjusted in 2003, and the sown area will be lower than that of last year Jilin Province, the main production area, will gradually reduce the planting area of common corn and expand the rotation area of corn and soybean; Heilongjiang Province will reduce the planting area of corn and increase the planting area of soybean The weather condition is not very ideal, the main production area of Jilin Province will encounter drought in the spring of 2003, and the lack of soil moisture will affect the sowing and seedling rate Although the corn planting area in the United States has increased, the high price of spring wheat and cotton indicates that the corn planting area will not increase significantly Therefore, planting area and weather support the price expectation UAA 4 Due to the increase of shipping cost, the international market price also constitutes a strong spot price CBOT corn price in March changed from $2.40-2.30/pu in February to $2.10-2.00/pu in the same period last year, with the bottom rising USDA's recent forecast on the supply, consumption and price of major agricultural products in the world shows that the output and inventory in 2002 / 03 are all at the lowest point and the price is at the highest point, which also supports the price rise in China The above basic analysis of UAA supports the increase of corn price in March, but if Jilin Province operates the aging grain auction in March, the market will be depressed and the price will be affected If there is no aging grain auction, the market will continue to maintain a fluctuating upward pattern uaA
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