Analysis of current corn market situation

Introduction: first, the current market price situation Since the second half of this year, the domestic corn price began to fall, there is still no sign of stopping the decline After nearly half a year of continuous decline, corn prices have fallen by nearly 20% At present, the price of main corn producing areas in Jilin is about 1000 yuan / ton; Longjiang is about 980 yuan / ton; Hebei is about 1040 yuan / ton, Shandong is about 1050 yuan / ton; Shanghai is about 1120 yuan / ton, Zhejiang is about 1100 yuan / ton, Hunan is about 1130 yuan / ton, Sichuan is about 1150 yuan / ton; Dalian is about 1060 yuan / ton, Qinhuangdao is about 1050 yuan / ton Limited by transportation capacity, recently, the quantity of corn from Guangdong and Fujian ports decreased, and the price of corn rebounded The price of Huangpu port in Guangzhou is 1180 yuan / ton, and that of Fuzhou is 1160 yuan / ton It is estimated that this rebound will be difficult to continue With the increase of corn arrival, the price of corn will return to the downward trend From the current price situation, the price gap between the production area and the sales area has narrowed down, and even there is a phenomenon that the price in the production area is higher than that in the sales area The price of corn in the main production area of Northeast China has no practical significance, and it is basically in the state of market or business, with very few trading volume 2 The reasons for the rapid decline of corn price 1 The overall supply-demand relationship of corn in China has not changed fundamentally and is still in a state of supply slightly greater than demand Affected by natural disasters, corn production has been reduced for two consecutive years However, due to the continuous harvest of corn in the previous years and the poor market, sufficient inventory has been accumulated to meet domestic consumption demand There is a surplus in the total balance, the supply continues to increase, and the demand is relatively weak This kind of market situation that supply exceeds demand can be said to be the fundamental reason for the current corn market price 2 The export volume of corn has shrunk, and the driving force of the rising market price is gradually weakening Now looking back, the rising price of corn from the second half of 2000 to the first half of this year is to some extent realized under the strong pull effect of exports Once this effect is weakened, the impact on the market is obvious Since the second half of the year, due to the decline of international corn price, the competitiveness of China's corn export has been greatly weakened, and the speed of corn export has slowed down significantly According to customs statistics, as of October this year, 4.86 million tons of corn had been supplied and exported by China, down 43.7% from the same period last year The slowing down of corn export speed can be said to be the reason for the continuous decline of corn price 3 In the early stage, the targeted sales activities of aged grain carried out by the state in some places coincided with the peak of new corn listing in North China The low market price had a great impact on the corn market, which accelerated the decline of corn price The selling of aged grain was another incentive for the rapid decline of corn price in the near future 4 This year's corn purchase market is complicated The protection price and market price coexist, and the main channel and multi-channel coexist This year, corn in the Central Plains and the Huanghuaihai area is no longer included in the protection price range, while corn in the three provinces and one area in the northeast is also purchased at the protection price There are not only state-owned grain purchasing enterprises, but also large grain users and their individual private traders in the main body of purchasing, so the market management is relatively loose The price of corn has been in a declining environment, and all parties in the market are not very active Most of them keep a wait-and-see situation, which leads to the low price of corn, and private grain vendors are more picky The current situation of grain purchase is the main reason for the accelerated decline of corn price in the near future 5 The WTO entry has been approved, which attracts more and more attention from the market After entering the WTO, the pressure from the international market price is increasing According to WTO rules, corn export subsidies will be cancelled after China's accession to WTO, while imports will gradually open up the market From the information we have, the import of corn has begun According to the report of the US Department of agriculture, the United States has sold 500000 tons of corn to China, and China has cancelled the export of 1 million tons of corn sold in the export bidding in August The news of corn resale circulated in the early market is not the wind of holes It can be seen that the domestic corn market will be more vulnerable after China's accession to the WTO, which will affect the circulation and price of domestic corn The trend of Georgia, the relationship between supply and demand, people's psychology and other aspects will have a far-reaching impact, some of which are even unforeseeable III prediction of corn price trend in the later period After nearly half a year's decline, the price of domestic corn market has been at a low level From the perspective of corn purchase price level in the production area, there is little room for corn price to fall again However, from the perspective of influencing corn price fundamentals, it is difficult for corn price to fall in a short time when all kinds of interest factors are still dominant With the strength, the market will continue to maintain the pattern of low-level consolidation The trend of this downturn may last until around the Spring Festival, and the price rise again needs to be coordinated by policies For example, the special inspection of grain prices in the main grain producing areas of the country, which starts in December and ends at the end of March next year, will have a positive impact on the market Does it indicate the policy of corn price The bottom signal has arrived, we need to further observe.