Analysis and Prospect of current corn market situation

Introduction: [analysis and Prospect of current corn market situation] since the price of corn market was started in the second half of 2000, after half a year's operation, the price reached the highest point at the beginning of April this year, and then it came out of the market that fell back and consolidated After May 1, the market situation has undergone some subtle changes Next, the author will make a brief analysis on the recent price trend and future development trend of the domestic corn market based on the understanding and mastering of some situations I Analysis of current corn price trend: domestic corn prices began to fall in mid April, after about a month's correction and consolidation, they picked up again after the long may day holiday This time, the price of corn rose, and the performance of the production area was more fierce than that of the sales area At present, the price of corn car board in Jilin has risen from 1040 yuan / ton before the festival to 1080 yuan / ton, with a rise of 30-50 yuan / ton, or about 4% In the short term, the price of corn has returned to the high price area before April The price of corn in the northeast of Guangdong port is kept at 1280 yuan / ton, with the increase of about 20 yuan per ton The reasons for the rapid recovery of corn prices are as follows: first, the peak of grain sales has passed, and the supply of grain is becoming increasingly tight According to the situation in Jilin Province, the spring ploughing in the field is basically over before and after the May 1st Festival The peak of centralized grain sales caused by farmers' raising spring ploughing funds in the early stage has passed At present, the surplus grain in the hands of farmers is not much, the market supply of grain is increasingly tense, and farmers' psychology of reluctant to sell is strengthened Second, the purchase price of corn rose, while the sales price rose simultaneously The author learned in the countryside that the corn purchase price in Jilin Province was slightly lower in the areas with relatively closed traffic, from 0.48 yuan / kg in the early stage to 0.50 yuan / kg at present; the areas along the railway were slightly higher, from 0.50 yuan / kg in the early stage to 0.52 yuan / kg at present, and the purchase price of corn increased by 40 yuan per ton, which led to the increase of sales price Third, feed production has entered the peak season, and the desire of merchants to purchase has increased After May, it will enter the peak season of feed production, and the peak season of northeast corn is also from May to December every year Recently, with the gradual consumption of corn stocks purchased by large grain users in the early stage, the large grain users in the sales area have made continuous inquiries from the production area, and their desire for purchase has been increasing It is reported that corn has been transported to the south in Dalian Port recently, and the flat price is about 1200 yuan per ton Fourth, the planting area of the major corn producing provinces has declined, and the spring drought is serious, which will have an impact on the corn production this year According to a survey of farmers' planting intentions conducted by Jilin provincial agricultural research team, this year's corn planting area was reduced by 2.8% on the basis of a large-scale reduction last year At present, the drought situation in the whole province is serious The drought area of the dry land has reached 29 million mu, and the number of cities and counties affected by the drought has reached 22, all over the central and western regions of grain production This year's grain production will be adversely affected by the reduction of sowing area and the rare spring drought in history Fifthly, the export growth of corn is fast, driving the market price to rise Although there was a lot of corn production reduction in 2000, the corn inventory in the production area was still high In order to alleviate the inventory pressure in the production area and reduce the financial burden, the state calmly responded to the impact of imported corn on the domestic market after China's accession to the WTO, and promoted the balance of domestic corn supply and demand, and continued to increase the export of corn in 2001 From January to March this year, 680000 tons of corn were exported, an increase of 29.4% over 520000 tons in the same period last year It is reported that recently, the state has made adjustments to the corn export policy and appropriately increased the corn export subsidies, which will have a positive impact on the corn export in the second half of the year and play a strong supporting role in the strengthening of the domestic corn market price In addition, during the festival, the transportation is tight, and the transportation capacity of grain is limited due to the temporary transfer of freight to passenger transport, which also results in the decrease of the supply of grain resources in the short-term market and the fluctuation of prices 2 Analysis on the factors restricting the price rise of corn in the future Although the current price rise of corn is gratifying, in the long run, there are still many factors restricting the price rise of corn According to the comprehensive international and domestic market situation, there are mainly the following points: 1 Affected by comparative benefits, corn planting area has increased significantly According to relevant reports, due to the impact of the continuous decline of soybean prices in the early stage, compared with the current market soybean and corn prices, the income from planting soybean is far less than that from planting corn Although some provinces and cities use government subsidies to encourage farmers to plant soybean, the rising price of corn has really stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers to expand corn It is expected that this year, I China's corn planting area will increase by 7% compared with last year If the weather conditions are favorable in the later stage, corn may increase production If the average per unit yield reaches the average level of 1995-1999, the total corn production is expected to reach about 130 million tons However, the trend of corn price will be difficult after the yield is clear 2 The corn stock is abundant and can still meet the supply Although last year's corn production was cut, and more than 10 million tons were exported in that year, and a part of the inventory was dug up, the corn inventory is still abundant due to the accumulated increase in corn production in previous years, especially in the northeast main production area There is still no fundamental change in the domestic corn supply-demand relationship 3 The impact of policy In view of the fact that China's grain inventory is still at a high level and there is a great pressure on storage, the four ministries and commissions of the state jointly issued a notice asking all localities to take practical measures to encourage grain sales and avoid the phenomenon of "reluctant to sell" In terms of specific operation, the subsidy (60 yuan / ton) for purchase and sale enterprises in the main corn production area can be adjusted from subsidy in the purchase and storage links to subsidy in the sales links This policy will greatly mobilize the enthusiasm of purchase and sale enterprises in selling inventory corn, and the impetus from the policy aspect will increase the quantity of corn out of the stock, which will bring great pressure on the price rise of corn 4 In the second half of the year, it is estimated that some aged corn will flow to the market after the clearance and inventory inspection As the situation of grain market in the past few years is not very good, the open purchase policy has resulted in a large amount of grain stored beyond the time limit The utilization value of aged grain is fair, but the impact of its lower price on the market is inevitable 5 Affected by foot-and-mouth disease, the global animal husbandry is seriously damaged, and the consumption of corn as feed will be affected The price of corn in the international market continues to decline, which has an increasingly obvious impact on the domestic market price Especially after China's accession to the WTO, the trend of domestic corn price is more dependent on the price trend of the international market III prediction of corn market price trend in the later period Based on the above factor analysis, the recent domestic corn price increase momentum will be maintained in the future for a period of time Under the situation that the market environment is temporarily conducive to many parties, the corn price will challenge the previous high, and it is not ruled out that there is the possibility of creating a new high However, the author still adheres to the previous point of view, and there is a great pressure at the previous high of RMB 1150 Under the influence of many factors, it is inevitable that the market price will oscillate when it impacts the high price in the early stage In the later stage, the price trend of domestic corn market mainly depends on the weather conditions when the planting area is clear If the climate is favorable for the growth and development of corn, and the yield reaches or approaches 130 million tons, it is reasonable for the price of corn to fall in the fourth quarter But it seems that the weather situation is not too pleasant As early as the end of last year, some domestic media reported that this year is still a year of drought If this year is really a year of drought, and corn production is reduced again on the basis of last year, then the trend of corn price firmness will not change If the reduction is close to or greater than 2000, the domestic corn supply-demand relationship will develop In the second half of the year, the price of corn is likely to accelerate China feed industry information network 2Nb