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In 2016, the trend of copper stocks at home and abroad fluctuated
sharply.
At the beginning of the year, copper stocks at home and abroad were basically in an upward trend, but since February, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks have continued to decline, and LME copper stocks in March have "eleven consecutive declines" to the lowest in nearly 14 months, a decline of about 50%.
In stark contrast to foreign inventories, copper inventories in the previous period have been rising since February, and after the plunge in the first half of last year, copper inventories have steadily increased and doubled in March this year, reaching the highest level in history
.
This is the first time in more than a decade that the previous copper stock exceeded the LME copper stock.
Since the second quarter, copper inventories in the previous period have begun to decline
sharply.
At the end of November, global copper stocks continued to fall by 69,000 tons to 920,000 tons, indicating to some extent that the downstream demand for replenishment is strong
.
Domestic copper premium declined in November, but LME copper discount narrowed, which shows that LME copper stocks have been transferred to China, which can also be seen from inventory changes
.
Total global inventories (LME+COMEX+SHFE+Shanghai Free Trade Zone) decreased by 69,000 tons at the end of November from the end of October to 920,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons
from the same period last year.
Among them, the stocks in the bonded zone fell by 30,000 tons to 470,000 tons, the stocks in the previous period increased by 42,000 tons to 144,000 tons, and the LME stocks fell by 86,000 tons to 235,000 tons
.
However, in recent days, copper stocks have increased sharply, especially LME stocks have soared by more than 80,000 tons
in five days.
As the world's largest copper metal exchange, the London Metal Exchange has always been concerned by the market
.
As of December 16, LME copper stocks reported 307075 tons, a sharp increase of 11,775 tons per day, a sharp increase for five consecutive days, much higher than the average inventory value of 230,000 tons during the year, and the high point of inventory during the year was 379175 tons; As of December 16, Shanghai copper inventories in the previous period reported 144026 tons, a weekly increase of 12,076, the first increase in three weeks, indicating that short-term domestic inventory pressure has increased
.
Behind the ups and downs of copper stocks, some people say that it is consumption conversion, some people say that it is artificial manipulation of the market, and some people say that it is the exchange of explicit and invisible inventory, and it remains to be verified
by time.
