Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (9.11-9.15)

Macro: Domestically, China's latest macroeconomic data for August slowed down across the board, with the growth rate of industries above designated size slowing to the lowest level of the year for the second consecutive month, and fixed asset investment hitting the lowest level
since 1999 from January to August.
As the world's largest metal consumer, China's economy showed "stagflation" signals, which triggered market concerns about the outlook for copper demand, and copper prices fell significantly
.
Abroad, judging from the pullback of copper in the foreign market this week, in addition to the most important inventory surge factors, the overall weakness of the US dollar index, the North Korean problem and the Trump administration's tax reform are also important reasons
.
Trump's tax reform policy has been confirmed to be announced this month, when the core content will also be disclosed, the tax reform showed positive signals to trigger the market's speculation about the Fed's interest rate hike this year, the US index was regained to stand on the $92 line, copper prices fell under pressure
.

Market: Copper prices failed to stabilize after a sharp retreat this week, and the overall market performance was pessimistic, still lacking bright spots, and maintaining a lackluster state
.
The willingness of holders to ship has been significantly enhanced, and the market source has been replenished by a certain amount, but in the case of declining copper prices, market demand has improved slightly, and the downstream is still bearish in the future, so most of them maintain on-demand buying operations, there are not many people with a large amount of inventory, and the actual market volume is not large
.
Many merchants said that the actual market consumption this month did not show a significant improvement in August, and the "Golden Nine" may fall into the embarrassing situation
of the peak season.
In terms of imported copper, under the influence of the end of the appreciation of the yuan, the loss of imported copper this week narrowed sharply, which is conducive to the flow of imported copper into the domestic market
.
In anticipation of increased supply, if domestic copper market demand does not improve, it will obviously have a negative impact
on prices.

In terms of inventories: London copper stocks increased sharply this week, with a cumulative increase of 91,175 metric tons to 304,350 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 42.
8%.

Shanghai copper stocks fell by 6,100 tonnes to 166747 tonnes this week, down about 3.
53%, hitting a low this year
.
From this week's inventory data, Guangdong electrolytic copper stocks increased by 2,408 tons from last Friday to 31,768 tons, Shanghai Futures Exchange bonded warehouse copper stocks decreased by 6,100 tons to 166747 tons this Friday, LME copper stocks increased by 91,175 tons from last Friday to 304,350 tons
.
This week's inventory increase and decrease are different, of which the LME inventory increase is obvious, indirectly dragging down this week's copper price trend, the overall differentiation is more obvious, the side confirms the weak start of the Jinjiu market, failed to effectively drive the steady recovery of demand
.

Aftermarket analysis: LME copper inventories have increased sharply in recent days, coupled with the latest data showing that China's economic slowdown in August, suppressing the black trend, the copper market was affected by this, and a unilateral decline was staged during the week
.
At present, there is no positive guidance for fundamentals, investors are closely watching the upcoming release of China's August 70 City House Price Index, hoping to get clues about China's copper demand outlook, copper market sentiment is still cautious
until the results are out.
As far as the future trend of copper prices is concerned, the fundamental bearish factors are basically exhausted, the latest wave of decline may have slowed down, if there is more positive news next week, the probability of a future market rebound increases
.