Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (8.7-8.11)

Macro: At the beginning of the week, due to the good US economic data, the US dollar index continued to rebound, copper prices were suppressed, but the market bulls still dominated, the bullish mentality was still strong, and the overall copper price did not change much
.
On Tuesday, China's fourth round of environmental protection inspections was carried out in an intense and orderly manner, and copper prices remained high and volatile as a whole, driven by the general rise of metals across the board inside and outside
.
From midweek to the weekend, copper prices continued to pull back
under the pressure of the continued strength of the dollar index and the high profit-taking mentality of investors.
In addition, due to the intensification of the "mouth cannon" of the United States and North Korea, the tension between the United States and North Korea has further heated up, triggering emergency risk aversion in the market, base metals have pulled back across the board, and copper prices have slowed down their rally and turned into a pullback trend
.
However, under the weakening of the US dollar, copper prices have a relatively limited decline, the accumulation of early gains is too large, and after a pullback, it continues to narrow, returning to fundamental dominance
.

Market: this week as copper prices maintain an upward trend, the market is generally wait-and-see-based, it is difficult to promote the trading atmosphere, from Thursday, copper prices from the high pullback is stronger, attracting traders to take advantage of the low, downstream also just need to stock, the transaction has improved, Friday trading continues to improve, the morning copper price continued to pullback, holders of the price shipment is still strong, near the weekend, the market sentiment is slightly boosted, downstream inquiry is acceptable, bargain on demand stocking
.
In the recycled copper market, due to the expected tight supply of goods, most recyclers chose to ship at high prices, slightly reluctant to sell, but the overall transaction situation remained weak
.

Inventories: London copper inventories continued to decline this week, with a cumulative weekly reduction of 14,550 metric tons to 283675 metric tons, a cumulative decline of nearly 4.
9%, a six-week low
.
Shanghai copper inventories rose by 17,062 tonnes to 207777 tonnes this week, an increase of about 8.
95%, hitting a 10-week high
.
From the above data, it can be seen that the supply of copper ore continues to be tight, the overall demand in the domestic market is insufficient, and the role of inventory dematerialization may continue to be weakened, and it is expected that after the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season, the terminal consumer demand will improve
significantly.

Future market analysis: At present, from the latest economic data released by China, there are signs of slowing down in domestic demand, which is bound to affect the rise in copper prices in the short term
.
In addition, after the US non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, the economic outlook showed a slight optimistic sign, but the US dollar index as a whole is still on a weak track, which is expected to support the decline in copper prices to be limited, and although the strike on the supply side is temporarily over, it will take a long
time to resume production 。 In general, in the short-term lack of further positive news stimulus, copper prices under pressure or limit the rise turned to a continuous correction track, profit taking continues to suppress copper prices, but in the medium and long term, the supply side continues to be tight, the off-season slowly enters the end and the peak season gradually comes, consumption remains stable, supply and demand structure improvement, coupled with the overall weak pattern of the US dollar has not changed, forming a significant support for copper prices, it is expected that next week's domestic copper prices will fluctuate
strongly in the range of 49,000-50,500 yuan.