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This week (August 15-August 19) domestic copper prices fluctuated widely, the overall market is still weak, taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 37240 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 37200 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton, down about 0.
11%.
On the macro front: This week, the dollar was plagued by weak US employment data, the market cooled expectations for the Fed interest rate hike, and the latest release of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting minutes hawkish to weigh on the dollar, which also provided some support to copper prices
.
However, the current risk of speech seems to have changed, the rhetoric about the Fed's interest rate hike has heated up, the dollar has begun to show signs of stopping, the pressure on the copper market has increased, the trend of copper prices has intensified, and the weak market is difficult to completely reverse
for a while.
Market: This week, the market supply is sufficient, especially after the price due to the outflow of warehouse receipts a large number of supplementary supply, and smelters ship good copper, traders are also actively selling, resulting in good copper rising water and turning to discount, and downstream also because of the increase in its own warehouse receipts to increase inventory, low demand for market spot, few purchases, market trading shows a weak atmosphere
.
On the last trading day of the week, the market supply is sufficient, smelters basically do not ship, and traders are enthusiastic about shipments, actively selling, downstream manufacturers demand is low, a small amount of on-demand mining, mostly for weekend processing, the overall consumption situation is not ideal
.
Stocks: As of August 19, LME copper stocks reported 210625 tons, down 2,800 tons from the previous day, close to the level of July 27 this year, but still higher than the average inventory value of 192,000 tons during the year; at the same time, as of August 19, Shanghai copper stocks in the previous period were reported at 172619 tons, down 1,944 tons from last Friday, far lower than the average inventory of 257,000 tons
during the year.
From the current changes in copper inventory in the domestic and foreign markets, they are in a state of shock recovery, while the market consumer demand is low, and due to the off-season shadow, orders are not ideal, the overall consumption is weak, and it is expected that the copper market will still face greater pressure
.
Future market analysis: At present, although China's economic slowdown is serious, it is still unknown how much impact it can have on peak season consumption, and the two positive effects of the Fed's interest rate hike and the strengthening of oil prices have gradually been reflected, which makes the support below copper prices strengthened, and the short-term decline risk may weaken.
Therefore, it is expected that copper prices are in adjustment in the near future, the overall performance or shock is strong, and there is still a possibility of breaking through the upper pressure, waiting for further news guidance
.
