Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (8.14-8.18)

Macro: At the beginning of the week, the fundamentals lacked positive news guidance, the overall trend of copper prices maintained a narrow range of volatility, along with the strong recovery of US economic data, the dollar hit a one-day gain of nearly three months, copper prices continued to pullback, but the overall pullback was limited
.
Copper prices began to rise wildly in mid-week, due to the global macro economy, China's consumer demand is still in a strong period, coupled with the US dollar index deep dive and other multiple positive boosts, base metals closed higher across the board to drive copper prices
.
At the same time, the report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics shows that from January to June 2017, the global copper market was short of 41,000 tons, and the supply shortage in 2016 was 68,000 tons.

Towards the weekend, tensions between the United States and North Korea triggered a rise in market tensions, and copper prices slowed their rally but remained high and consolidated
.

Market: this week's spot market merchants generally more cautious, procurement and stocking confidence is insufficient, because the direction of copper prices is not yet clear, demand has not improved significantly, in the current high price range, downstream users on demand procurement, the overall transaction volume is limited, but need to see signs of improvement is that with the end of the off-season, due to the expected supply side of the source of goods continue to tighten, downstream users generally favor low-priced sources, demand gradually improved
.
In terms of the recycled copper market, the sales of brass and copper have a greater impact with the strict investigation of environmental protection, and most recyclers are reluctant to sell at high prices, and are not eager to sell, and the transaction is average
.

In terms of inventories: London copper stocks continued to decline this week, with a weekly cumulative reduction of 12,325 metric tons to 271,350 metric tons, a nearly seven-week low, with a cumulative decline of 4.
34%.

Shanghai copper stocks fell by 3,687 tons to 204,090 tons this week, a decline of about 1.
81%.

Judging from this week's inventory data, the copper stock of the bonded warehouse of the Shanghai Stock Exchange weighed to 200,000 tons; Guangdong electrolytic copper stocks decreased by 4,090 tons from last Friday to 16,210 tons, falling below the 20,000-ton level again; LME copper stocks fell 12,325 tonnes from Friday to 271,350 tonnes
.
The above inventory data also verifies from the side that the late supply of copper mines or facing tightening expectations, the source of circulation or continuous reduction, but the demand has not been effectively improved, in the case of high prices, downstream users generally turn to digest their own inventory, and the process of inventory dematerialization accelerates, which also shows that copper prices in the later period maintain a strong pattern
.

Aftermarket analysis: from this week's trend, copper prices gradually cooled and retreated after Thursday night, returning to fundamental guidance, along with global macroeconomic expectations, although China's economic data and industrial data show signs of a slight slowdown, but for the traditional peak season that is about to return to the "golden nine silver ten", demand is still strong, infrastructure and other aspects will usher in a new round of construction tide, coupled with the advent of the 19th National Congress and the National Games, the supply crunch brought about by environmental protection production reduction will also be conducive to the rise of base metals to a certain extent, in addition, At present, the US dollar is at a low level overall, driven by multiple benefits, copper prices are expected to continue to rise
.