Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (7.4-7.8)

On the macro front: The Bank of England's semi-annual financial stability report on Tuesday said Brexit risks had begun to emerge and said it was ready to act to ensure capital and liquidity buffers could support lending
.
The minutes of the Fed meeting, released on Wednesday, said that uncertainty in the US labor market and financial markets has increased, and that more data and Brexit should be carefully awaited
.
In addition, a number of European banking stocks plunged this week, almost to record lows during the European debt crisis, which made the market realize that the global economy is weak and risks are still in place, investor caution is gradually heating up, and base metals such as copper and aluminum are
under pressure.

Market: This week's domestic spot copper market supply increased compared with last week, after the transition to July, a batch of imported copper in the market entered the circulation, so this week's imported copper brands and supply increased
significantly.
In addition to the improvement in the supply side, the consumption side also changed
slightly this week.
In the early stage, copper prices soared, downstream copper merchants were slow to enter the market to purchase, the trading volume fell to a slump, and after the copper price pullback, merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing increased significantly, so the holders raised the spot copper premium
.
The improvement in supply and demand may help copper prices stabilize in the near future, and it is more likely that the decline will stop falling and stabilize next week
.

In terms of stocks: as of July 8, LME copper stocks reported 223225 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the end of last week; At the same time, as of July 8, the previous Shanghai copper inventory was reported at 162,130 tons, an increase of 236 tons
from last week.
Copper inventories at home and abroad have been on an upward trend this week, with LME copper inventories in particular rising 18 percent over the past few days, driven by an increase in warehouses in Asia, with a 34,000-tonne increase pushing inventories to a five-month high
.
Analysts said that the increase in China's exports in the past few months indicates that copper demand is decreasing, and also reflects a significant increase in supply-side pressure in China after the consumption season, with weak fundamentals and still obvious pressure on the copper market
.

After-market analysis: Although the copper market is still in the off-season, but the probability of copper prices falling back to the low level in June is very limited, this week's copper price decline is an adjustment of the previous excessive rise, and copper prices This round of adjustment has basically ended, and is expected to stabilize and rise
next week.
In the medium and long term, the copper market gradually ushered in a new demand season in September, which does not rule out that enterprises will gradually have stock demand at low prices, and copper prices have not yet left the previous shock range in the near future, and it remains to be seen
whether it can break through the previous high.