Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (7.18-7.22)

Macro: Previously, global market risk events continued, the Brexit referendum, the Turkish coup and other troubles, but the recent easing policy expectations of major economies in the world helped copper prices soar, in addition, China's second-quarter GDP was better than expected, coupled with China's copper import data table is good, copper prices supported by this, the rebound touched the second highest point of the year, sweeping away the previous haze, market risk appetite has risen
。 It is reported that China's refined copper imports in June were 300,000 tons, an increase of 19.
7% year-on-year, and a cumulative increase of 23.
74% in the previous six months, showing that despite the bad macro data, China's apparent demand is very strong, thereby supporting copper prices
.

Market: this week's market supply is acceptable, domestic smelters ship a small amount, market import brands dominate, traders ship more actively, within the week encountered delivery after the outflow of warehouse receipts, the market supply is more, downstream manufacturers due to the replenishment of warehouse receipts, coupled with the decline in the number of orders and high copper prices, the willingness to purchase is low, only a small amount of on-demand procurement
。 On the last trading day of the week, the market supply is sufficient, warehouse receipts outflow is more, the market is dominated by imported copper, traders are actively shipped, a small amount of purchases, smelters rarely ship, downstream manufacturers believe that copper prices are significantly higher than their psychological prices, maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and poor terminal consumption leads to poor orders from manufacturers, insufficient interest in copper spot
buying.

Stocks: As of July 22, LME copper stocks reported 222725 tons, down 8,550 tons or 3.
75% from last Friday, hitting a low since July 11 this year, but higher than the average inventory value of 190,000 tons during the year; In the same period, Shanghai copper stocks in the previous period reported 174971 tons, down 2,228 tons from last week, close to the year's low of 155235 tons, and well below the average inventory of 256613 tons
during the year.
Recently, global copper inventories have fallen sharply, the degree of copper surplus has been reduced, if the supply and demand pattern of the future market continues to improve, copper prices will receive some support, if the supply and demand side does not improve substantially, the future market will still face downward risks
.

Future market analysis: Overall, this week's macro environment began to gradually return to flat, the current macro environment on copper prices impact overall neutral, in the absence of new favorable conditions, the market for loose monetary policy expectations are difficult to promote copper prices to continue to rise, can only play a supporting role; On the contrary, the stability of the macro environment has significantly enhanced the effect of oil prices on copper prices, and the current continuous correction of oil prices is not conducive to copper prices, so copper still maintains volatility
in the short term.