Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (7.17-7.21)

Macro: Abroad, the US dollar index has been sluggish this week, as Trump's medical reform policy has suffered another setback and his "Russiagate" incident has been deeply investigated, investors are skeptical about whether its follow-up promises can be fulfilled, and the US economic outlook may be affected; With lingering problems with U.
S.
inflation and a more cautious outlook for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year, the dollar index fell below the 94 mark this week to hit a yearly low, and the dollar index continued its decline to support copper prices
.
Domestically, China's second-quarter economic data released this week performed strongly, GDP growth and industrial added value both better than expected, indicating that China's economy continues to maintain a stable and positive trend, beautiful Chinese data has boosted the copper market demand outlook, supporting the strengthening of domestic copper prices, reported on Tuesday since the beginning of
March this year.

Market: In terms of market, the domestic spot copper market showed a tepid state
this week.
As it was the last trading day of the main Shanghai copper contract on Monday, the market activity was not good, and the rise in copper prices also limited the willingness
of downstream to enter the market.
Although copper prices remained strong in the following days, market activity heated up, as traders became more willing to enter the market, and downstream merchants mainly purchased on demand
.
However, on the whole, the downstream demand performance of the market in July this year still exceeded market expectations, so the demand side did not have much of a drag on the price
.
On the contrary, the supply situation in the domestic spot copper market has tightened this week, as upstream smelters control shipments, so the spot copper discount range this week has clearly shown signs of narrowing, and by Friday afternoon, good copper had been reported to flat water
.
In terms of supply, the demand for flat water copper and good copper during the week was better, and wet copper was not cared for, and transactions were rare
.
As far as the future market is concerned, the market is bullish, so it is expected that spot copper will gradually turn into a premium state
next week.

Inventories: Global copper inventories are trending
downward this week.
Copper inventories continued to decline during the week, with a cumulative reduction of 6,675 metric tons to 306625 metric tons, a cumulative decline of 2.
13%.

Shanghai copper stocks fell by 8,858 tons to 181632 tons this week, a decline of about 4.
88%.

At present, the market's judgment on the mainstream of copper prices is that it will remain upward in the short term
.
From the current LME copper and SHFE copper stocks, the two showed a continuous decline, of which LME copper stocks fell by 1775 tons, while SHFE copper stocks fell by 1233 tons, indicating that the current copper demand is generally stable
.
Therefore, the main factor in the current decision is the supply side
.

Aftermarket analysis: Recently, in the context of obvious signs of improvement in the global economy and the continuous weakening of the US dollar, global base metals have shown a general rise pattern, and copper prices have risen in shock, breaking the slightly "tangled" trend
in the past six months.
At present, China's macro data exceeded expectations, the copper price is obviously positive, the dollar index continues to fall, and there is no sign of stabilization, the upward movement of copper prices also plays a role in the high firewood, and as the strike and other factors continue to ferment, short-term copper prices are expected to continue to rise, next week copper prices are still volatile
.