Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (7.11-7.15)

Macro aspect: This week's macro face has been heavy, the overall performance is warm, and the market's expectations for the easing policy of central banks are heating up
.
After the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Wednesday signaling continued economic expansion, and the Bank of England unexpectedly announcing on Thursday that it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.
5%, China's economic data performed brightly, with the National Bureau of Statistics showing that China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 6.
7%
year-on-year.
From the current point of view, the dollar has retreated after a weak upward rush during the week, and China's economic "falling without breaking" has injected great confidence into the market, and there are still analysts that China will ease monetary policy, which continues to support copper prices
.

Market: last week copper prices were low, downstream processing enterprises basically have replenished inventory, this week domestic spot copper copper soared, but due to the high copper prices, downstream merchants consumption enthusiasm was hit
.
This week's market supply is acceptable, domestic smelters ship a small amount, market import brands dominate, traders shipments are more active, the second half of the week price reduction promotion, but downstream manufacturers are afraid of heights and orders are not ideal, procurement willingness is weak, and is still in the consumption off-season, terminal orders are not much, copper merchants are not eager to purchase, so the overall market volume declined
.

In terms of stocks: as of July 15, LME copper stocks reported 231275 tons, an increase of 8,050 tons from last Friday; At the same time, as of July 15, the previous period of Shanghai copper stocks reported 177199 tons, an increase of 15,069 tons from last week, the second consecutive week increase in 15 weeks, in addition to the previous period copper stocks fell for 14 consecutive weeks, a cumulative decrease of nearly 240,000 tons, close to the year's low of 155235 tons
set last week.
At present, global copper oversupply concerns still exist, fundamentals show weakness, rapidly increasing inventories or suppressing copper price upside, copper aftermarket will still face downside risks
.

Future market analysis: copper prices have a sharp surge this week, but there is still a downward trend in the short term, and the upward trend has not continued, which shows that the market's expectations of easing policy alone are no longer enough to promote copper prices, and copper prices need more favorable factors to promote
.
In addition, it cannot be ruled out that after the optimism gradually fades, the market returns to fundamentals, and copper prices still have the possibility
of a slight correction.
Overall, the probability that copper prices will continue to remain volatile next week is extremely high, waiting for further guidance
on the news.