Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (7.10-7.14)

Macro: Domestically, the central bank restarted the reverse repurchase operation of 40 billion yuan on the 11th, and the action interrupted for more than ten consecutive days has recovered, which has also eased the situation of investors' concern about the loose capital surface, and the monetary policy continues to remain stable and neutral
.
Abroad, data released by the US Department of Labor on July 13 showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell for the first time in a month to 247,000 in the week of July 8, slightly higher than expected, combined with a strong labor market that may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the third time in December this year and announce a reduction in its huge balance sheet
in September.

Market: The overall fluctuation range of copper prices this week is small, and there is no obvious unilateral market, and the price change in the spot copper market is naturally not large
.
This week's spot copper market is not as popular as last week, and the downstream is basically based on on-demand procurement, and no merchants have entered the market to purchase in large quantities
.
At the beginning of the week, the cargo holders wanted to ship at a high price, but helplessly a large number of imported copper sources flowed into the market during the week, and the good copper premium continued to fall, and even reported to flat water
for a while.
However, in the second half of the week, as the delivery period gradually approached, the price difference between Shanghai copper in the current month and the next month widened rapidly, and the holders continued to raise the premium shipments, and good copper rose by about
100 yuan.
Traders were relatively active during the week, becoming the main force of market transactions
.
As far as the future market is concerned, merchants mostly believe that although foreign strikes still occur from time to time, market demand in July must perform poorly, and under this condition, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate widely
.

Inventory: Recently, global explicit stocks have fallen
significantly this week.
London copper inventories fell slightly this week, with a cumulative weekly decrease of 1,775 metric tons to 313,300 metric tons, a cumulative decline of 0.
56%.

Shanghai copper stocks fell by 1,172 tonnes to 181632 tonnes this week, down about 0.
65%.

On the whole, although copper inventories have shown a downward trend recently, there is no significant contraction on the demand side, and the supply side has increased production capacity, plus the willingness of midstream and downstream stockpiles has decreased, and the fluctuation of explicit inventory has been significantly amplified
compared with the previous period.
By the end of the half year, the explicit inventory of the three major exchanges was about 574,000 tons, an increase of about 171,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is still very large, which will inevitably limit the upside
of copper prices in the later period.

Aftermarket analysis: Since the end of June, the inventories of the two cities have shown rapid growth, although the inventory of the two cities has declined slightly this week, there are still signs that under the combined effect of tight capital and in-depth off-season, downstream purchasing willingness continues to decline, copper demand has weakened significantly, supply tension has gradually turned into oversupply, and downward pressure on copper prices still exists
.
In the short term, the lack of positive news in the copper market to boost it, the decline in demand in the off-season or overshadow the impact of the recent hot Chilean mine worries of a possible strike, copper prices above the obvious resistance, copper prices are expected to remain weak next week
.