Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (6.5-6.9)

Macro: Domestically, China's May import and export data were better than expected, although copper ore and its concentrate imports fell from the same period last year, but unwrought copper and copper imports exceeded expectations, up 30% from the previous month to 390,000 tons, and expectations of a recovery in Chinese demand supported a rebound
in copper prices 。 Abroad, this week, the market waited on the three major events in Europe and the United States, namely the congressional hearing of former FBI Director Comey, the interest rate meeting of the European Central Bank and the British election, the continuous fermentation of geopolitical risks made the market risk aversion high, investors chose to be cautious before the results, and then by Chile and Indonesia supply troubles and China's beautiful boost, copper prices changed their multi-day decline and returned to a two-week high
.

Market: On Monday, traders were not enthusiastic and shipments were not smooth, and downstream users were more cautious and wait-and-see when copper prices continued to fall after the holiday; On Tuesday, cargo holders insisted on premium shipments, and downstream users waited for the premium to pull back under the condition of sluggish consumption, and supply and demand were slightly deadlocked; On Wednesday, the downstream of the day favored the low-priced premium copper supply, but the overall market buying interest was limited; On Thursday, the holders insisted on raising the price, the sale was still obvious, the downstream users insisted on bargain hunting, the downstream procurement and stocking demand improved, and the overall trading was more active; On Friday, although copper prices stopped falling and rebounded, the downstream was worried that the excessive copper prices would be difficult to maintain, and the market trading situation was average
.

Inventories: London copper inventories fell this week, with a cumulative weekly reduction of 25,750 metric tons to 276875 metric tons, a cumulative decline of 8.
43%, a six-week low
.
Shanghai copper stocks fell by 17,977 tons to 190262 tons this week, a decline of about 8.
63%.

On the whole, in recent days, copper inventories at home and abroad have declined to varying degrees, which will cause some support for copper prices in the short term, on the other hand, from the import and export and domestic copper downstream data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, market demand has not improved, and it is expected that the increase in supply will further increase the excess pressure, thereby suppressing copper prices
.

Aftermarket analysis: Recent data indicate that China's import demand is strong, coupled with copper supply concerns later this week to support copper prices, in addition, the continuous decline in LME copper inventories has brought the current copper price into a rebound window, and the market long atmosphere has gradually driven the copper market sharply higher
.
However, at present, Chile copper mine resumed production, while China has entered the consumption off-season, demand is temporarily difficult to have a big improvement, the market macro has a great uncertainty, June funds will continue to be tight, short-term or affect the rise of copper prices, short-term copper prices to maintain a strong trend of volatility, and in the later period without big good news, the price continues to rebound or difficult to continue
.