Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (6.20-6.24)

Macro: The market is generally concerned about the referendum to leave the EU this week, after polling data mostly showed that the Remain camp prevailed, the market also expected the UK to remain in the EU, optimism boosted the market, base metals received some support
.
Domestically, copper prices rebounded
under favorable policy stimulus such as the State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission to guide enterprises, finance and social capital to build reserves when non-ferrous metal prices are low.
However, due to the surprise result of the final referendum in the UK, Brexit has a greater impact on the market, which is likely to trigger a domino effect, and the medium- and long-term trend of copper prices will not be too good
.
Of course, Brexit is not without benefits, especially for the Fed, in the face of unpredictable turmoil in the market, the Fed will inevitably be more cautious in raising interest rates, and it is expected that the July meeting will continue to release loose comments to boost the market, so the trend of copper prices in the future will still be affected
by the news.

Market: This week's market supply is loose, imported copper has increased the pressure on the supply side, traders are actively shipping, but it is difficult to ship, downstream manufacturers due to poor orders, relatively weak demand, low willingness to purchase
.
Although copper prices continued to rise during the week, merchants were still not optimistic about the future market, and the transaction was light
.
On Friday, affected by Brexit, London copper fell sharply, although the Shanghai period did not plummet, but there was some panic in the spot market, which does not rule out further affecting consumption next week
.
From the perspective of copper terminal consumption, in addition to the air conditioning industry, the growth rate of copper consumption industry this year is generally better than last year, considering that the base in the second half of last year is relatively low, if the growth rate of terminal demand in the future market is better than last year, or it will support
copper prices.

Stocks: LME copper stocks were 192375 tonnes as of June 24, down 3,550 tonnes or 1.
81% from 195925 tonnes on Friday, down the 10th day in the past 11 trading days; At the same time, as of June 24, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 155235 tons, a weekly sharp decrease of 10,870 tons, the tenth consecutive week of decline, close to the low set on October 9 last year (152934 tons), a cumulative decrease of 239542 tons
.
China's refined copper exports surged 256 percent year-on-year to 84,959 tonnes in May, the highest
since May 2012, according to the General Administration of Customs.
According to China's high-precision copper exports in May, the increase in London copper inventories is only the transfer of global market inventories, rather than the obviousness of other invisible stocks, which alleviates market worries
to a certain extent.
In addition, the recent gradual and slow decline in LME copper stocks to below 200,000 tonnes has also temporarily improved market sentiment
.

Aftermarket analysis: The Brexit referendum ended, the Brexiteers won a big victory, and as soon as the news came out, not only the foreign exchange stock market was affected, but also commodity prices declined
.
In terms of the market, the supply side is still under pressure due to the entry of imported copper, while the downstream market is not satisfactory due to the impact of the consumption off-season, and the market trading is weak, and copper prices are expected to remain under pressure
.
After Brexit, for a long time, copper prices will not be too optimistic, and it is still necessary to wait for the European and American markets to digest the results of Brexit, and wait and see for
the time being.