Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (6.13-6.17)

Macro: Domestically, China's economic data in May was generally weak, the formal economic rebound ended, the slowdown in money supply growth showed that the market was tight, the domestic macro released bearishness, and the central bank is expected to continue to implement loose monetary policy
.
Abroad, the Fed first announced that interest rates would remain unchanged as scheduled during the week, and then the focus of the market turned to the Brexit referendum, but due to the shooting of pro-EU opposition lawmakers, the market turned calm, which is still the biggest uncertainty in the copper market until the end of the Brexit referendum
.

Market: With the advent of the consumption off-season, the consumption of domestic spot copper market has weakened significantly this week, although prices have remained low
.
On the supply side, supply was tight on Monday, and then liberalized, due to the sharp increase in copper imports during the week, increasing the pressure on the supply side, while the demand of downstream manufacturers was weak, and they continued to stay on the sidelines, so that the market traded little
.
From the current supply and demand situation, upstream supply is still continuing to release, demand is in the consumption off-season, macro risks have not yet been released, short-term temporary wait-and-see, waiting for the market to clear
.

In terms of stocks: as of June 17, LME copper stocks reported 195925 tons, down 3,100 tons from the 16th, which was a sixth consecutive day; At the same time, as of June 17, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 166105 tons, a sharp weekly decrease of 16,233 tons, the thirteenth consecutive week of reduction, and the decline further expanded, close to the low point set on December 31 last year, a cumulative decrease of 228672 tons
.
However, industry insiders said that copper stocks in the Asian registered warehouses of the London Metal Exchange (LME) could rise by about
50% next month as copper was transferred out of China.
Rising inventories may weigh on copper prices in the short term, while the supply of new mines also makes the long-term outlook worrying, and copper prices are expected to remain under greater pressure
in the future.

Future market analysis: The current macro environment is not stable, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have cooled, and Brexit has become the biggest unstable factor
in the market.
In addition, factors such as increased supply pressure and weaker demand caused by seasonal off-season have highlighted multiple downward pressures
on copper prices.
It is expected that short-term copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, but considering the boost of news such as the domestic strengthening of non-ferrous metal elimination of backward production capacity and the possible establishment of commercial storage and storage, the short-term correction range of copper may be limited
.