Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (6.12-6.16)

Macro: Domestically, the National Bureau of Statistics released a number of data on China's macroeconomy in May, although the recovery of manufacturing investment reflects the improvement of the real economy, but the planned investment in newly started projects has slowed down, indicating that there is still downward pressure on the economy in the future, and the continuous increase in the regulation of the property market has clouded the outlook for industrial metal demand, and metals such as copper and aluminum are under pressure
.
Abroad, copper prices were under pressure on expectations that the dollar index would strengthen ahead of the results of the Fed's monetary policy meeting
.
This week, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and the market is optimistic that the US economy has grown moderately this year, employment growth has been solid, the US index has rebounded from its lows, and copper prices are under pressure and weak
.

In terms of the market: copper prices jumped sharply above 46,000 yuan / ton on Monday, holders actively quoted, and continued to adjust prices and shipments as prices fell down, and the downstream performance was cautious and fearful of heights during the day, mainly purchasing on demand, and the transaction was general; On Tuesday, prices continued to fall, discounts continued to loosen, holders' enthusiasm for shipments weakened, downstream wait-and-see was the mainstay, trading was cautious, and the transaction was not good; On Wednesday, near delivery and exchange month, although the holder actively quoted, but the downstream wait-and-see is the mainstay, and the acceptance is considered after more delivery and exchange months, and the overall procurement confidence is weak; On Thursday, the closing day delivery is still the same; On Friday, the trading situation was still average, but after the copper price fell back in the afternoon, the holders controlled shipments, the market supply was less, the overall spot premium increased, traders and downstream were slightly replenished, and trading picked up
.

Inventories: London copper stocks fell this week, with a cumulative weekly decrease of 8,425 metric tons to 268,450 metric tons, a cumulative decline of 3.
04%, refreshing a seven-week low
.
Shanghai copper inventories rose by 8,752 tonnes to 199014 tonnes this week, up about 4.
6%.

Data show that China's refined copper production from January to May increased by 7.
2% from the same period last year to 3.
586 million tons, although the continuous decline in LME stocks supports international copper prices, but the domestic market is fully supplied, coupled with the arrival of the July off-season, copper demand is facing greater pressure, and it is expected that the later copper price trend will still face certain pressure
.

Aftermarket analysis: copper prices fell under pressure this week, mainly due to the market's digestion of the US interest rate hike and the resumption of production in Peruvian copper mines after bad weather, especially the US economic data is less than expected, the market expects that the US economy may be difficult to rebound in the second quarter, and the outlook is doubtful
.
With the landing of the Fed's interest rate hike, coupled with bad data, the long-term slow growth of the US economy, the US index is under pressure and upside resistance is obvious, and the news surface is relatively vacuum
.
In the domestic copper market, entering June and July, the consumption of copper itself will enter a relatively weak state, and it is difficult to improve demand greatly, and copper prices will still fluctuate
around the low point of the year.