Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (5.23-5.27)

Macro: Abroad, the market continued to hype the Fed's interest rate hike this week
.
The continued improvement in US macroeconomic data has made the market expectations for the Fed interest rate hike gradually strengthened, and the dollar index was also boosted to a maximum of 95.
678, which is currently showing support, which is still putting pressure on copper prices
.
Domestically, the data released this week is still uneven, but the efficiency of industrial enterprises shows positive changes, from January to April, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.
5% year-on-year, the growth rate was 0.
9 percentage points lower than that of January to March, from the market reaction, A shares fell first and then rose, the overall interpretation is still positive, so the nonferrous market was boosted
.
However, in the long run, the market must face the fact that China's economic growth is slowing, the demand outlook for copper market is worrying, and copper prices are bound to rise weakly
.

Market: Copper prices began a small rebound this week, although the rebound was not large, but for many reasons, the spot copper market was weak
.
Domestic spot maintained a premium this week, 50-80 yuan on Friday, the downstream received goods actively in the early part of the week, and then rebounded with the price and had no intention of chasing higher, and the transaction was suppressed
in the late week.
In addition to the slightly higher price, it is mainly due to the significant decrease in downstream orders, coupled with the shortage of corporate funds at the end of the month and the low price in the early stage, which has made the transaction volume decline significantly this week
.

Stocks: As of May 27, LME copper stocks were reported at 153,750 tons, down 1,975 tons or 1.
3% weekly, a three-week decline and falling back to the level of a month ago; During the same period, Shanghai copper stocks in the previous period reported 221212 tons, a sharp weekly decrease of 36,122 tons, the tenth consecutive week of decline, and the decline further expanded, close to the low set on January 29 in the year, a cumulative decrease of 173565 tons or 44%.

In recent days, the copper inventory in the previous period has continued to decrease, forming the "appearance" of strong consumption, but the actual consumption of the market has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the rise in copper prices is unstable and the upside is limited
.

Future market analysis: At present, the copper market is gradually entering the consumption off-season, and the weak downstream consumption will inevitably make the copper price below the support insufficient, and it is inevitable
that the copper price will continue to fall.
However, compared with last week, the market performance is much calmer, because market consumption will not suddenly deteriorate and oil prices are still at a high level, copper prices still have the possibility
of a slight rise.
But in the short term, whether the Fed will raise interest rates in June or July, copper prices cannot avoid the pressure brought by the strong performance of the
US index.