Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (4.5-4.7)

On the macro front, the domestic market was closed on Monday and Tuesday, and it opened low on Wednesday due to the weakening of London copper during the Qingming Festival, and after the opening of the market, due to the news of the establishment of the "Xiong'an New Area", the market risk appetite increased significantly, and the black series strengthened, which also drove the overall optimism
of the inner and outer metal performance.
Abroad, under the blow of the failure of medical reform, Trump turned his attention to infrastructure reform, and at Tuesday's meeting, Trump proposed large-scale investment in infrastructure and significantly reduced regulatory plans, and market confidence soared, boosting the largest one-day increase in eight weeks
.
However, due to the US military strike on Syria, market risk aversion heats up, coupled with the possibility of the Fed reducing its balance sheet later, the US dollar has entered the interest rate hike cycle, the problem of tight funds has emerged, the US dollar has risen, the price of non-ferrous metals and other prices is collectively under pressure, and the upward trend of copper prices is slightly weak
.

Market: However, although the price of Shanghai copper this week has not changed much compared with the pre-holiday period, the spot copper market has performed better than before
the holiday.
As the pressure on the capital surface has been eased after the cross-month period, the willingness of holders to raise the water is very strong, so this week's spot copper premium has narrowed sharply compared with last week, as of Friday, good copper has been transferred to the premium quotation, and the price difference between brands has also significantly narrowed
.
In terms of demand, the market trading performance during the week was acceptable, Wednesday's transaction was more hot, the downstream bulls actively entered the market for stocking, and traders traded more actively
.
In the next two days, because copper prices failed to break through the previous high, the market's willingness to stock up cooled significantly, and the market transaction deteriorated
.
In terms of imported copper, the loss window of imported copper has narrowed this week, which is conducive to the increase in the supply of imported copper, but from the perspective of market performance, the supply pressure of the domestic spot copper market is still average
.

Inventories: London copper inventories continued to decline this week, with a cumulative reduction of 25,850 metric tons to 265325 metric tons this week, a cumulative decline of 8.
88%, the lowest level in nearly a month
.
Shanghai copper inventories rose 7,434 tonnes this week to 314,810 tonnes, an increase of about 2.
42%, to a three-week high
.
Market supply and demand were weak
this week.
On the first day after the holiday, the consumer market can still continue the pre-holiday recovery trend, but as the supply tightens, the spot discount narrows and the good copper turns into a premium, downstream manufacturers hold a wait-and-see attitude, and large manufacturers only purchase
on demand.
So far, market consumption has not reached the previous expectations for the peak season, and it is still necessary to wait and see the changes in market demand in the
later stage.

Future market analysis: the recent US economic data has performed well, the market expects that the pace of Fed interest rate hikes may accelerate, in addition, geopolitical factors have boosted the US dollar, commodity prices are generally under pressure, and copper prices will remain limited; In the market, although the announcement of an indefinite strike by Peruvian workers of Southern Copper Company has rekindled supply worries in the market, copper prices are expected to remain suppressed
next week due to weaker-than-expected demand during the peak season.