Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (4.18-4.22)

Macro: There were no major financial data releases from China this week
.
Abroad, in the current global economic slowdown, the US economic growth momentum is still good, but because the main tone of the Fed's current loose monetary policy has been set, there is almost no possibility of raising interest rates in the short term, so the impact on the copper market is actually limited
.
In the current situation of little change in the contradiction between supply and demand, oil prices are the main reason
for affecting copper prices.
Although the frozen production agreement at the Doha meeting last weekend was aborted, oil prices did not immediately fall from the high, and the positive factors continued, making oil prices difficult to change, and also helped copper prices to rise
again.
From the current situation, oil-producing countries still have the ability to release a positive factor to the market in the near future, of course, it is more speculation, in fact, it will not have much impact
on the supply and demand pattern of crude oil.
Therefore, oil prices are expected to remain at current highs for some time, giving strong support
to copper prices.

Market: copper prices rose sharply this week, but the overall supply pattern of the market remained unchanged, and traders were strongly willing to cash at a high level, making the expansion of spot discounts limited, from 120-60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 170-120 yuan / ton
at the weekend.
Low-priced sources of goods are always favored, middlemen receive goods for long orders, and downstream procurement willingness is not strong in the face of continuous sharp rises, and on-demand acceptance is the mainstay
.
The actual trading of the market is still concentrated among
traders.

Stocks: as of April 22, LME copper stocks were reported at 147,800 tonnes, down 175 tonnes or 0.
12% weekly, still close to the August 20, 2014 level (145,200 tonnes); In the same period, the Shanghai copper inventory in the previous period was reported 331689 tons, a slight decrease of 253 tons, a five-week decrease for five consecutive weeks, and a cumulative decrease of 8983
.
The recent better-than-expected series of data released by China for the first quarter of this year indicates that the domestic economy has improved, market trading enthusiasm has heated up, and copper prices have continued to be strong, but the slight reduction in copper inventories in the previous period last week or suggesting that the market demand outlook is not as optimistic as expected, and copper prices may be suppressed
.

Future market analysis: under the influence of the peak season effect, supply and demand issues are not the main factors affecting copper prices, in addition to their own supply and demand problems, the recent factors affecting copper prices are mainly the Federal Reserve, China's economic situation and oil price trends
.
The first two factors are currently occurring around, the possibility of sudden improvement or deterioration is not large, only the elasticity of oil prices is relatively large, and the overall performance of oil prices is currently strong, so it is expected that the overall shock of copper prices in the short term is strong
.