Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (4.11-4.15)

This week (April 11-April 15) domestic copper prices fluctuated and rose, taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 36010 yuan / ton, and the average copper price rose to 36930 yuan / ton on Friday, up 920 yuan / ton, an increase of about
2.
55%.

Macro aspects: This week, the market's eyes are clearly focused on the situation in China's economy and the Doha frozen production meeting
on April 17.
Since April, most of the data released by China show signs of gradual economic stabilization, so the market's worries about China's economy have weakened, making the macro environment generally warm in April, creating a good external environment
for the rebound of copper prices this week.
Of course, the rise in copper prices this week is more related to the trend of crude oil, and the market has higher expectations for the Doha meeting to reach a frozen production agreement, so the overall performance of oil prices is strong, supporting the base metals market
.

Market: Market supply is acceptable this week, smelters basically do not ship, but prefer trade exports, domestic traders shipments are more active
.
In the first half of the week, due to the low copper price, the market trading was active, downstream manufacturers actively bargained for procurement, and in the second half of the week, copper prices recovered, downstream manufacturers consumed early inventory, and procurement activities were shelved
.
On the whole, the fluctuating copper price has made the market merchants unstable, most of them buy and buy now to avoid risks, and it is expected that the short-term growth of consumer demand in the copper market will be relatively slow
.

Stocks: LME copper stocks were 147975 tonnes as of April 15, up 1,475 tonnes
from the previous day.
Data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that as of April 11, copper stocks in the previous period were reported at 331942 tons, down 28,983 tons
from last week.
At present, LME inventories have begun to show signs of low recovery, from the previous period of continued to support copper prices of the low inventory pattern may change, especially in the Asian market inventory increase significantly, market concerns still exist, the continuation of consumption patterns of doubt has also deepened, copper market will continue to come under pressure
.

Future market analysis: In the short term, under the boost of the demand season and China's economic data preferences, copper prices are expected to continue to rise slightly, but in the medium term, with the arrival of the consumption off-season, copper market demand will still restrict the trend of copper prices, coupled with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike node approaching the support of the US dollar index, the risk of copper prices falling gradually accumulates
.
At present, copper prices have just gone through a round of rise, the upward momentum will be weakened, and it will enter a volatile market in the short term, and it is expected that the overall trend of copper prices next week will be
mainly volatile.