Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (3.19-3.23)

Macro: At the beginning of the week, on the eve of waiting for the guidance of the US dollar interest rate hike news, the US dollar index failed to support the fall of the 90-point mark, superimposed demand has improved to a certain extent, domestic copper prices continued to rebound and pull higher, overall, copper prices did not change much
before the US announced the start of the trade war.
Since the United States announced its decision to impose tariffs on a number of Chinese products on Thursday, China's Ministry of Commerce has responded with a strong counterattack, causing markets to fall and financial markets to generally come under pressure
.
The Sino-US trade war officially began, which may affect the import and export trade of many industries, market investors are generally worried about global economic growth and demand, and copper prices fell again to hit a new low
in nearly three months.

Market: In the first few days of this week, copper prices generally maintained a weak shock pattern, and there was relatively little room for upward and
downward fluctuations.
However, on Friday, the macro environment changed suddenly, and the start of the Sino-US trade war triggered a sharp drop in copper prices, and the overall performance of the market was pessimistic
.
This week's spot copper market supply is still sufficient, the beginning of the week holders are strong willingness to hold prices, spot copper discount continues to narrow, good copper discount narrowed more than 100 yuan, the lowest is reported at a discount of about
120 yuan / ton.
At the beginning of the week, the willingness to stock downstream was acceptable, and although more on-demand stocking was maintained, the overall willingness to enter the market was not low
.
However, copper prices fell sharply on Friday, with spot copper prices falling below the 50,000 line
.
Although copper prices are cheaper than in previous days, under the influence of the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, downstream merchants' willingness to enter the market has deteriorated
.
Traders are also more cautious in entering the market, and the market transaction is significantly lower than in previous days
.
As far as the overall demand situation of the spot copper market this week is concerned, it is not in line with the demand situation
in the peak season.
From the perspective of the premium discount, it is not as good as the same period
last year.
Although the Spring Festival holiday this year was late, to a certain extent, it led to a later start time of downstream construction, which dragged down market demand
.
However, overall, it is still an unknown factor
that the domestic copper market demand can continue to improve in the later period.

In terms of stocks: Shanghai copper stocks increased by 10,441 tons to 307435 tons this week, an increase of about 3.
52%.

London copper stocks fluctuated slightly this week, with weekly cumulative inventories falling by 1,525 metric tons to 317,750 metric tons, a cumulative decline of about 0.
48%.

From this week's inventory data, Shanghai Stock Exchange bonded warehouse copper stocks increased by 10,441 tons to 307435 tons on Friday, further confirming that demand has not improved after the holiday, the continuous backlog of inventories has formed a certain suppression of short-term copper prices, London stocks decreased by 3,700 tons to 317,750 tons, inventories continued to be high and stable by 300,000 tons, from the above inventory data, the overall performance of the two markets this week supply pressure increased, most of the holders of the overall shipment positive, most choose to adjust the price of shipments, Some downstream manufacturers have no obvious procurement due to unclear demand expectations, sufficient stocks, and the overall total transaction volume is limited, and it is expected that the transaction next week may continue to be poor
.

Aftermarket analysis: On the whole, the heating up of the Sino-US trade dispute has aggravated market concerns, and the future economic situation is full of uncertainty, which may drag down global economic growth and raw material demand, and investors are cautious to wait and see the subsequent development of
the trade war.
At present, copper prices return to fundamental factors, the demand of the golden three peak season is only one week left, from this week's transaction situation, although China's demand shows a certain activity, but compared with the same period last year, the peak season demand is insufficient, focusing on next week's demand changes
.
The short-term market is still dominated by cautious sentiment, and copper prices may continue to run weak next week
.