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This week (March 13-March 17), domestic copper prices rose slightly, and the overall price center of gravity shifted
slightly upward.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 46,670 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 47,600 yuan / ton, up 930 yuan / ton, an increase of about
1.
99%.
Macro aspects: The biggest macro event of the week is the Fed meeting
.
The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but the March rate hike was already expected by the market, and after the announcement of the decision, Fed Chair Yellen did not give any hints of tightening in the future, disappointing some investors, the dollar index fell nearly 1% during the week, hitting a two-month low at the low, and the US index fell back to boost copper prices
.
Domestically, the macro data released on Tuesday for February was slightly poor, and the total retail sales of consumer goods were dragged down by automobile consumption to stall, and whether the domestic economy will usher in an inflection point in the second quarter still needs attention
.
Market: At the beginning of this week, the rebound in futures prices made the price of good copper rise for a while, but the downstream countries almost did not make purchases, and continued to stay on the sidelines, which remained until after the delivery date, and on Thursday as the copper spot price spread widened again, the low-priced copper business improved, and the market shipments also improved, and traders bought good copper and wet copper
at the bottom.
This week, suppliers are more willing to ship, but due to the soaring price, the downstream fear of heights is high, and it is difficult to sell
.
On the last trading day of the week, market traders purchase warehouse receipts in small quantities, and downstream continues to purchase on demand to process a small amount of warehouse
storage on weekends.
In terms of stocks: London copper stocks rose overall this week, with a cumulative increase of 12,100 tons to 337,600 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 3.
72%.
The average LME spot market discount extended during the week, with the LME spot discount averaging $20.
25, up from last week's discount of $17.
06, mainly related to
the continued increase in LME inventories this week.
Shanghai copper stocks fell by 1,454 tonnes to 325278 tonnes this week, down about 0.
45%.
So far, the market is still waiting for the arrival of the consumption season, and it is still necessary to wait and see how
market demand changes in the later stage.
Aftermarket analysis: This week, the Fed announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike as scheduled, but the expectation of a rate hike has been digested by the market in advance, and Yellen's remarks after the rate hike are dovish, the dollar does not rise but falls, and copper prices are
boosted.
On the whole, with the arrival of the traditional consumption season in March and April, downstream procurement may increase one after another; In addition, upstream copper mine supply problems are still accumulating, and copper prices are still expected to perform in the peak season, and spot copper prices are expected to rise
steadily next week.
