Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (3.12-3.16)

Macro: Copper prices have been heavily influenced by the dollar index this week
.
The latest release of U.
S.
economic data is generally good, the job market continues to improve, the dollar interest rate hike expectations gradually heat up, the dollar index once rushed to the 90 mark, inhibiting the rebound of copper prices, before the next Fed interest rate meeting begins, the dollar index is expected to form a certain constraint
on copper prices 。 In addition, the United States trade protectionism measures continue to escalate, steel and aluminum tariffs have not subsided, recently Trump will impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on aluminum foil products imported from China, and plans to impose high tariffs on 60 billion US dollars of goods imported from China, the continuous heating up of Sino-US trade frictions has worried the market, market risk aversion has risen, and copper prices have fallen
under pressure.

Market: The overall trend of copper prices this week is relatively stable, spot copper prices have been fluctuating within 1,000 yuan, and market pessimism has been released
.
Therefore, there are slight signs of improvement in downstream demand this week, coupled with the arrival of the delivery period, spot copper premium continued to rise this week, but after the change of month, under the influence of the basis of the next month, it returned to the discount quotation, and the overall market demand was more general
.
However, from the perspective of the company's starting situation, it is still ideal, so we believe that the company's respective inventories are currently maintaining a relatively low level, once the copper price in the future market has signs of recovery, then in the market buying up not buying down mentality, it is expected that downstream demand will show signs of
improvement.
Overall, the spot copper market still shows a clear oversupply trend, during the Spring Festival, the large amount of domestic accumulated inventory still needs to be digested, how the later copper price evolves also needs to pay attention to the news and inventory changes
.

In terms of stocks: Shanghai copper stocks increased by 28,899 tons to 296994 tons this week, an increase of 10.
78%, the highest level in nearly a year
.
Shanghai copper stocks increased by 28,899 tons to 296994 tons this week, an increase of 10.
78%, the highest level in nearly a year
.
From this week's inventory data, the Shanghai Stock Exchange bonded warehouse copper inventory increased by 28,899 tons to 296994 tons on Friday, further confirming that demand has not improved after the holiday, and the continued backlog of inventories has formed a certain suppression
of short-term copper prices.
From the above inventory data, the overall performance of supply in the two markets this week supply pressure increased, most of the holders of the overall shipment positive, most chose to adjust the price of shipments, some downstream manufacturers due to unclear demand expectations sufficient stock for the time being, the overall total transaction volume is limited, it is expected that next week's transaction or continue to be poor
.

After-market analysis: On the whole, the impact of bearish factors in the copper market has gradually weakened, and after the Fed raised interest rates in March, it is expected that the US dollar index will be difficult to have a trend upward trend, and the suppression effect on copper prices will be reduced
.
In addition, Chilean copper miners' strike has led to increased uncertainty about copper mine supply, coupled with the traditional consumption of the domestic copper market known as "gold three silver four", the current "gold three" has been more than half, with the downstream copper enterprises gradually resumed work, it is expected that the operating rate of copper processing enterprises will increase, the market hopes that the "silver four" demand gradually recovers, next week copper prices are expected to stabilize
upward.