Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (1.9-1.13)

On the macro front: The dollar continued to retreat and was positive for copper prices, first the Fed's labor market index fell year-on-year
, and then Trump's failure to detail the new infrastructure spending plan in a press conference disappointed investors.
In addition, China's inflation data hinted at a further recovery in the domestic economy adding impetus
to the upside of copper prices.
It is reported that China's PPI in December far exceeded expectations year-on-year, and the prices of products in the three black and one color (petrochemical, steel, coal, nonferrous metals) industries pulled PPI up sharply, and China's economic inflation expectations heated up, driving commodities higher
.

Market: This week's main trading range is about 45270-47380 yuan / ton, the premium is mainly in C220-B90 yuan / ton, the spot price fluctuates and rises, and the premium rises first and then suppresses
.
This week, the market supply is flat, with many imported brands and a small number of shipments from smelters
.
Traders gradually entered the holiday state, trading activities decreased, downstream manufacturers demand was weak, operating rates fell sharply, entered holiday mode, and purchased a small amount
.
The domestic spot market has gradually turned into a discount since the premium this week, the market supply is increasingly sufficient, the downstream is mainly on-demand procurement, there is no large number of incoming goods, and the transaction is increasingly scarce
.

In terms of stocks: LME copper stocks reported 281,700 tons in the week ended January 13, a sharp weekly decrease of 13,425 tons, the 12th week decrease in the past 14 weeks, and the current stock hit a new low since December 14 last year, but still well above the average annual inventory of 230,000 tons in 2016, and the high of the inventory during the year was 379175 tons; As of January 13, Shanghai copper inventories in the previous period reported 170797 tons, a slight decrease of 764 tons per week, the first decrease in three weeks, but still close to the high set on September 2 last year, indicating that short-term domestic inventory pressure is still large
.
At present, the market is still in the aftermath of last year's real estate-led consumption improvement, and it is expected that consumption will remain
in the first half of the year.
Copper still maintains the volatility after last year's rise, trading point of view, temporarily lack of the possibility of hitting a new high again, it is recommended not to chase and buy, last weekend the position increased to 510,000 lots, the price has fallen back to around 46,000 recommended to buy appropriately, otherwise less move and see
more before the Spring Festival.

Aftermarket analysis: This week's dollar pullback, commodity prices generally rose, or for the sprint
before delivery.
Spot market, this week's spot market performance of supply and demand is weak, especially near the New Year holiday, market trading demand has declined
significantly.
Overall, although the macro is warm, the market is speculating on good news, and copper prices rose sharply during the week, it is still necessary to pay attention to the flow of funds at the end of the year, and short-term operations
are still recommended.
The Federal Reserve is about to release the Beige Book of economic conditions, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, pay attention to further guidance
on the news.