Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (12.19-12.23)

Macro: This week, the US dollar and crude oil still have a certain impact
on the base metals market.
The final GDP of the United States in the third quarter was better than expected, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014, and its final value was 3.
5%, compared with 3.
3% expected and 3.
2%
in the previous assessment.
The message is neutral
.
The Fed is now widely expected to raise interest rates again, and the dollar is likely to continue to appreciate against the backdrop of the inability of other countries to tighten monetary policy
.
But in the short term, the December rate hike has been priced in by the market and may briefly pull back
after the rate hike is cashed in.
The Fed's monetary policy decision-making meeting will be held on December 13-14, and whether the Fed will raise interest rates and how the market will interpret it will become the focus of market attention, coupled with the failure of the Italian constitutional referendum, which will increase the uncertainty of the peripheral economic environment
.

Market: The year-end factors have a more serious impact on the market, although copper prices fell this week, but under the influence of the sentiment of holders eager to exchange cash, the market supply is acceptable, imported brands are most, and smelters ship a small number of domestic brands, such as Daye and so on
.
During the week, cargo holders increased their shipments, and holders took the initiative to expand the discount to 280 yuan / ton - 150 yuan / ton, attracting some traders to enter the market to close low-priced sources
.
However, as the market stopped falling and stabilized, the downstream bargain buying increased slightly
.
The 25th is approaching, the annual long order is about to end, most state-owned enterprises have gradually entered the stage of closing and settlement, the monthly ticket is tight, the monthly ticket source quotation discount narrowed to 200-80 yuan / ton
.
The discount showed a trend of first rising and then suppressing, and the middleman settled the supplementary ticket mainly
after the week.
This week, downstream manufacturers bargained on demand procurement, due to the shortage of funds at the end of the year, the procurement demand was not strong, and most of them maintained a wait-and-see attitude
.

In terms of inventories: LME copper stocks reported 334525 tonnes in the week ended December 23, a sharp increase of 27,450 tonnes per week, the second increase in 11 weeks, much higher than the average inventory of 230,000 tonnes during the year, and the high of stocks during the year was 379175 tonnes; As of Dec.
23, Shanghai copper inventories were 134377 tonnes in the previous period, down 9,649 tonnes weekly, the third decline in the past four weeks, indicating a decline
in short-term domestic inventory pressure.
LME inventories have increased sharply this week, and LME spot market discounts have also expanded, with the weekly average LME spot discount at $12.
81, narrowing from last week's discount of $11.
06, and the LME spot market is still weaker
than in previous years.
The discount of the domestic spot market has narrowed this week, and the downstream bargain has gradually entered the market for procurement, but the overall transaction is still weak
.

Future market analysis: Overall, with the fall of copper prices, the component of copper price overgrowth is eliminating, in the short term, the upward pressure still exists, and the disk maintains a volatile pattern
.
Considering the increasing global economic uncertainty, the supply and demand side has improved slightly, but the support for copper prices is limited, and there is still a downside risk
in the future market.
It is recommended that investors take profit and leave the market in the early stage, those who have not entered the market wait and see for the time being, and aggressive investors will light positions and lay out short orders, paying attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and changes
in market sentiment.