Analysis of copper price trend in the domestic spot market in April

Macro: Recently the market macro environment is mainly warm, the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting announced that the US dollar interest rate remained unchanged, in line with expectations, and the domestic economic data in March has improved sharply, indicating that the economic growth rate has shown signs of stabilization, and good macroeconomic data has ushered in another wave of copper prices
.
In addition, the rise in copper prices this month is also affected by crude oil, Russia and Saudi Arabia basically reached an oil production reduction agreement to drive crude oil to rise, for a time commodities have risen sharply, the futures market is also very crazy, black tie to drive copper prices step by step
.
Overall, in the absence of improvement in market consumption, whether copper prices can recover can only be expected by macro factors, and the later market needs to wait for new data guidance
.

Market: Recently, copper prices have generally rebounded, but in the process of continuous rise, downstream copper merchants have been indifferent, and procurement has been cautious, even if the inventory is low
.
On the other hand, the supply side has not changed much this month, imported copper is still flooding the spot market, and domestic copper is still not large
.
Due to oversupply, spot stocks are almost all in a discount state this month, excessive discount has caused traders to face losses, a few traders have the willingness to raise prices, but are dragged
down by weak consumption.
May is the last month of the traditional peak season, and considering the impact of the late off-season, it is expected that the spot copper market consumption in May will remain cautious
.

Stocks: LME copper stocks reported 149,500 tonnes at the end of the month, a weekly increase of 1,700 tonnes or 1.
15%, still close to the level of September 3, 2014 (154825 tonnes); In the same period, the Shanghai copper inventory in the previous period reported 311894 tons, a sharp weekly decrease of 19,795 tons, for six consecutive weeks, a cumulative decrease of 83,083 tons or 21.
05%, back to the level
of early March.
Since the beginning of this month, copper stocks have also fallen a lot, and the copper stocks in the previous period fell by 28,983 tons in the week of April 15, which once gave the market some confidence
in the speed of destocking.
However, according to analysis, the total amount of global copper stocks has not changed much, but the pattern of the copper market has changed, so the decrease in inventories does not mean that demand has improved, and the actual market demand remains to be seen
.

Future market analysis: Affected by the May Day holiday, the overall wait-and-see atmosphere of the current market is strong, although the copper market has fallen, but due to the warm macro environment of the market, support and pressure coexist, copper prices have little room for downward correction
.
In the short term, downstream consumption is relatively limited, but driven by market sentiment, copper prices are still likely to rise, and it is expected that copper prices may still rise in the later period, but in the medium and long term, with the end of the copper demand season in May, and the cooling of macro favorable market sentiment, it is expected that if downstream demand declines rapidly after May, copper prices may continue to decline
.