Analysis of copper price trend in the domestic market in June

Although the spot copper price rose sharply in June and then fell again, the overall price center of gravity is still higher than in May, so for downstream copper manufacturers, the procurement cost has still increased, so in fact, the subjective willingness of downstream merchants to stock in June is slightly negative
.
In addition, because the traditional peak season in the first half of the year has left, the objective demand of the domestic copper market in June has also deteriorated compared with previous months, which can promote downstream enterprises to increase source procurement
.
Therefore, for the whole month of June, the market demand situation has shown a little sign
of weakening.
The continued decline in spot copper premium in June also supports this view
.

In terms of import and export, although the performance of Shanghai copper in June was relatively strong, the continuous loss of imported copper has not changed, and the loss range is basically maintained at more than 1,000 yuan, and the loss in the first half of June is much
larger.
Excessive import losses are not conducive to the inflow of imported copper, but this has not well alleviated the oversupply of the domestic spot copper market, because domestic copper production has increased rapidly during the year
.
As far as expectations are concerned, with the arrival of the consumption off-season in July, it is expected that the oversupply situation in the domestic copper market will not be too obvious to improve, and if there is a lack of positive news, the trend of copper prices may not be too strong
.

In terms of inventory, in the last week of the end of the month, London copper stocks continued to decline, with a cumulative decrease of 11,450 metric tons to 294525 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 3.
74%; Shanghai copper stocks increased by 8,574 tons to 263968 tons, up 4.
51%
for two consecutive weeks.
Prices are likely to remain volatile
in July.
LME copper stocks fell slightly, but they still did not get out of the shock range, and the copper stocks in the previous period fell back in shock.

Disruptions to copper's supply side could be in late July, when the world's largest copper mine, Chile's Escondida copper mine, faces the imminent expiration of labor contracts, strikes and renewed turmoil
.
The demand side is difficult to sustain growth
in the context of the divergence of the global economic recovery.
Considering that the US dollar index is likely to remain high, copper prices may remain volatile
in July.

Future market analysis: Under the premise that the copper market has entered the consumption off-season, copper prices in June were affected by the news and fluctuated greatly
.
Chilean copper mines entered a negotiating period this month, causing market supply concerns, and copper prices ushered in a surge at the beginning of the month
.
After a period of pullback and sorting, during the Dragon Boat Festival, Sino-US tariff contradictions were stimulated, market risk aversion gradually rose, superimposed on the previous long profit shipments, copper prices fell sharply, and constantly tested the bottom support
.
As far as the current market is concerned, copper prices have limited downside, and the support level is $6500
.
In July, pay attention to the results of labor negotiations in Chilean copper mines and the latest developments
in the Sino-US trade war.