Analysis of copper price trend in the domestic market in January

Copper prices fluctuated greatly this month, with Shanghai copper running at 4.
7-49,900
.
At the beginning of the month, affected by the British election and the Sino-US trade agreement, the confidence of the copper market increased rapidly, and the price rose rapidly, and the increase in the week exceeded 1,000 yuan
.
On the other hand, China's manufacturing PMI returned above the boom and bust line in December, and the better-than-expected recovery of the Eurozone manufacturing industry in December further boosted market confidence and brought some support
to copper prices.
However, with the end of the year gradually coming, affected by the weakening of the power of merchants and copper bulls, the spot market trading is light, the impact of Shanghai copper on the high level has not been successful, further affecting the weakening of market confidence, later with the conflict between the United States and Iran, geopolitics has put greater pressure on copper prices, Shanghai copper gradually fell back after the high shock adjustment, the price center of gravity moved down to touch the support level
.

In terms of the market, this month's Shanghai copper premium showed a situation of first rising and then suppressing, with an average monthly premium of about
20 yuan.
At the beginning of the month, affected by the rapid rise of Shanghai copper, downstream manufacturers actively purchased, the electrolytic copper market was once hot to boost the good copper premium, but this round of high premium situation only maintained until the middle of the month, with the end of the year near the recovery of goods and the impact of the copper rise and so on, traders are willing to ship to realize, in the month after the copper for the month after the rapid decline of the overall premium into discount, but it is worth noting that after the New Year's Day market trading gradually picked up, good copper into premium, the later premium again sharp decline space is limited
.

In terms of import profit and loss, the profit window of electrolytic copper imports this month remained closed, and the overall import profit remained at about -400 yuan / ton, the main reason may be that London copper was strongly recovered by the Eurozone manufacturing data, but the domestic Shanghai copper confidence is weak, the external strength and internal weakness pattern closed the import window, but there is still an inflow in the source of imported goods, and the market imports copper maintain a certain degree of circulation
.

This month, Shanghai copper first rose and then declined, once hitting the 50,000 mark, and then market confidence weakened, and the price center of gravity shifted
downward.
Internationally, the first round of Sino-US trade negotiations has basically landed, Trump said that it will be signed in mid-January, the global manufacturing industry has warmed, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI data has improved more than expected, and the global economy has stabilized
.
But this month, international geopolitics had a bearish impact on copper, the United States bombarded Iranian military officers and caused market turmoil, and the Turkish parliament agreed to send troops to Libya, and tensions pressed non-ferrous metals
.
Domestically, the central bank released the news of the RRR cut this month, and cut the reserve by 0.
5 percentage points from January 6, the counter-cyclical policy is good for the market, China's official December manufacturing PMI data stabilized year-on-year, and the revenue and expenditure were 50.
2 above the boom and bust line, and the domestic economy stabilized and counter-cyclical policies were favorable to support the copper market
.
It is worth noting that this month, Shanghai copper rose rapidly under multiple stimuli to hit the 50,000 mark without success, domestic Shanghai copper confidence has declined, the last week of December converged some of the previous gains, copper prices overall center of gravity maintained around
49,000.
In the short term, market confidence is weak, positive news has a limited impetus, or weak performance, while medium-term economic stabilization has brought some support
to copper prices.
It is expected that next month, Shanghai copper will first decline and then rise, the main range of Shanghai copper is 4.
84-50,000, and London copper is 6050-6250 US dollars
.