Analysis of copper inventories with LME in the previous period

In the first half of 2020, foreign LME copper inventories have rebounded as a whole, and are now close to last year's high, mainly due to the impact of the new crown epidemic in the first half of the year, the overseas economy has not yet improved, and demand continues to be sluggish
.
At present, LME copper stocks have turned hidden and large numbers from time to time, which reflects that overseas are still in the quarantine period, and terminal consumption has not fully returned to normal
after resuming production and work.

Domestically, the stock of bonded zone was 207,000 tons, and the domestic explicit copper stock (SHFE+ bonded zone) was 307,000 tons, down 312,000 tons from the same period last year and 54,000 tons
from the beginning of the year.
Both bonded zone inventories and domestic social inventories are in decline, and have now hit a new low
for many years.
Under the background of the gradual control of the impact of the domestic epidemic, the downstream resumption of work and production has been steadily advancing since mid-February, the market terminal demand has gradually recovered, and the inventory in the previous period of mid-March has ushered in a downward turning point
.
Among them, the copper stock in the previous period fell by 204,300 tons from 380,100 tons in the week of March 13 to 175,800 tons
on May 25.

The sharp decline in domestic inventories was mainly related
to the decline in domestic refined copper production in the first quarter and the overall recovery in demand in the second quarter.
The substitution of refined copper brought about by the decline in scrap copper supply is also an important reason for the decline in domestic inventories, overall, the decline in domestic inventories exceeds the normal level of previous years, and supply and demand factors are difficult to support the recovery of domestic inventories in the second half of the year, and it is expected that domestic inventories will remain low for a long time
.
Overseas, overseas inventory is currently at a high level, and the specific time to go to the warehouse depends on the relief of the overseas epidemic, and it is expected that there will be a chance to go to the warehouse
in the second half of the year.