Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (9.11-9.15)

Macro: China's new round of action to defuse aluminum production capacity may lead authorities to relax export policies, with analysts predicting that China's aluminum surplus will slip to 1.
2 million mt this year, and China's aluminum exports in August fell 6.
8%
from July.
China's production capacity cuts to reduce the oversupply of the aluminum market, and aluminum prices are supported
.
In addition, the recent comprehensive environmental protection supervision has led to production restrictions in some industrial enterprises, the implementation of environmental protection policies and the environmental protection expectations of the upcoming heating season, all of which have provided some support
to aluminum prices.
However, due to North Korea's recent missile launch again, the missile flew over Japan and fell into the Pacific Ocean, triggering a new round of risk aversion in the market, base metals have come under pressure to fall, but also put a certain pressure on aluminum prices, and the upward trend is limited
.

Market: the overall trading of aluminum ingots this week is significantly weaker than last week, since the afternoon aluminum plunge on Friday, the number of people trading aluminum ingots has decreased significantly, the price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of this week rose sharply, the volatile environment, the downstream is generally more cautious, because of fewer new orders, the amount of consumption is not much, generally only digesting the previous orders
.
However, the performance of cargo holders generally still tends to be optimistic, easily not giving away profits, and the mentality of selling is obvious
.
East China, Henan heating season production limit plan announced, and this Friday is the deadline of the third phase of supply-side reform, the market hopes for more good news, aluminum prices rose again, but with the news calm, the continuous upward momentum is obviously insufficient, aluminum prices began to adjust high, as of Friday, Yangtze River spot aluminum prices at 16170-16210 yuan / ton, up 240 yuan / ton
from last Friday 。 South China, as of Friday, the price of aluminum ingot tickets in South China was 16410-16510 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan / ton from last Friday, this week's market transaction in South China is not as good as last week, the market is unstable, downstream enterprises are not active in entering the market, more wait-and-see, and market transactions are reduced
.

In terms of inventory: the trend of London aluminum inventory this week maintained a straight decline, the latest inventory reported 1,313,400 metric tons, and a total of 8,100 metric tons of inventory was reduced this week, a decrease of about 0.
6%; The total aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 535,630 tons, an increase of 18,746 tons, or about 3.
6%,
from last week.
Last week, the national social aluminum ingot inventory showed signs of falling, making the market optimistic that the peak season is about to return, but the aluminum ingot inventory released this week once again hit the market, disappointing the
market's good wishes.
In the short term, the recovery of downstream consumption is constrained by many aspects, there is no obvious sign of recovery, environmental protection and high aluminum prices make downstream aluminum plants generally unable to take goods, new orders continue to shrink, so the real arrival of the peak season still needs to wait
.

Later: Recently, the market news is mixed, on the one hand, the implementation of illegal production capacity and the arrival of the consumption season support aluminum prices, but the high domestic inventory and inhibit the rebound of aluminum prices, this week's current aluminum price trend generally maintained first up and then down
.
At present, the impact of policy guidance on the trend of aluminum prices is dominant, and the sharp rise in aluminum prices also needs to be boosted by good news about supply-side reform, and in the short term, if the news is calm, the price may fall into a high adjustment
.
In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will be in the range of 15800-16800 yuan weak consolidation, but still need to pay attention to the recovery of downstream consumption, if aluminum prices can drive the recovery of consumption, under the good expectation of supply-side reform, the probability of Shanghai aluminum continuing to rise in the short term is still high
.