Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (8.21-8.25)

Macro: Abroad, investors have doubts about Trump's economic policy agenda, and market risk aversion has risen, but due to the domestic political tension in the United States, the US dollar trend is weak, which supports the base metal market to a certain extent, and aluminum prices maintain a strong trend
。 Domestically, despite the slowdown in China's house price growth in July, the construction boom still supports economic growth, the International Monetary Fund raised China's short-term growth forecast this week, the outlook for metal demand is optimistic, in addition, under the implementation of supply-side reforms, China's crackdown on illegal production capacity in the aluminum industry has shown its effect, China's average daily production of primary aluminum fell to 86,600 tons in July, down 11.
4% from June, and the de-capacity push up aluminum prices to rebound
.

Market: the peak of supply-side reform is gradually coming, aluminum as a whole is still in the rising channel, this week Yangtze River spot aluminum ingot price center of gravity continued to move up, the first two days due to the lack of favorable boost, fell into shock adjustment, but then the State Council meeting to mention electrolytic aluminum and other industries to reduce production, strictly control new production capacity, stimulate aluminum prices to rebound sharply, the highest increase in a single day reached around
400 yuan.
In East China, this week's holders maintained normal shipments, middlemen received goods appropriately at the pullback, downstream demand has not improved significantly, on-demand procurement is the mainstay, overall, the market is oversupplied and the transaction is limited
.
South China, as of Friday, the price of aluminum ingots in South China was 16490-16590 yuan / ton, up 240 yuan / ton from last Friday, and the transaction in South China this week was slightly better than last week, mostly reflected in traders, and the downstream receiving intensity has not changed for the time being, maintaining on-demand delivery
.

In terms of inventory: this week's Lun aluminum inventory maintained an upward trend, the latest inventory reported 1,321,600 metric tons, and a total of 34,525 metric tons of inventory increased this week, an increase of about 2.
7%; The total stock of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 489,930 tons, an increase of 3,138 tons, or about 0.
64%,
from last week.
This week's Shanghai social inventory is about 276,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week, and the South China Sea is 345,000 tons, and the high inventory still restricts the trend of aluminum prices, but due to the strong support of surrounding metals, aluminum prices have fallen to a limited
extent.
Considering the recent good news of supply-side reform, the short-term aluminum price increase or slowdown, next week to continue to maintain a high volatility market, can be bought on the fall, medium and long-term bullish unchanged
.

In the future market: Shanghai aluminum still maintained a strong finishing this week, at the beginning of the week because there was no new good news about the recent supply, the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum was not strong, but the surrounding metals were strongly supported, and the space for aluminum prices to fall was limited, and then the executive meeting of the State Council required to promote thermal power, electrolytic aluminum, building materials and other industries to reduce production and strictly control new production, stimulating aluminum prices to rise
.
On the whole, continuous speculation of aluminum prices quickly pulls up a strong crossbow situation, but it is difficult to see substantial bearishness, the market selectively ignores huge spot inventory, downstream fear of heights affect consumption and other factors, but after the continuous surge, short-term or there are signs of
adjustment.