Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (7.31-8.4)

Macro: this week's news is positive for the aluminum market, one is Shandong environmental protection production limit documents are issued again, Shandong Xinfa has recently completed the shutdown of 530,500 tons of production reduction task, the second is the world's largest aluminum producer China Hongqiao will close, replace more than 2 million tons of backward aluminum production capacity, and maximize the operating rate, production to maintain the current level, under the hype of the news of production reduction, domestic aluminum prices rose rapidly
。 In addition, the recent economic data released in the United States have not performed well to weigh on the dollar index, and the decline in jobless claims last week indicates a tightening labor market, which may still make the Fed still on track to announce next month that it will begin to reduce its large bond holdings, in addition, the ADP employment in July was less than expected and the previous value, the ISM non-manufacturing index hit a nearly one-year low in July, and the dollar continued to be sluggish during the week, boosting aluminum prices to rebound
.

Market: Aluminum ingot trading this week has recovered slightly from last week, but the overall trading volume is still limited
.
Inventories continue to remain high, off-season effect fermentation, terminal demand has not continued to improve, downstream lack of demand, although the plate has continued to rise, but the spot chasing strength is insufficient, generally on-demand procurement
.
East China aluminum ingot inventory is still higher than South China, because the price difference between the two places continues to narrow, profits are contracted again, according to the principle of profit priority merchants are generally willing to send goods to East China, coupled with the recent environmental protection strict inspection, the transportation cost to South China has increased accordingly, and the local source of goods has decreased
slightly.
Recently, environmental protection production restrictions and production stoppages in Shandong, Xinjiang and other places have intensified, and merchants are more cautious in shipments, and dare not rashly choose to ship in the case of low profits
.
This has led to a continuous decline
in the growth rate of aluminum ingot inventories in South China.
At present, it is still in the off-season of consumption, downstream demand is still in a low state, still not optimistic in August, coupled with rising inventory, oversupply pressure is still obvious, in the trend of high aluminum prices, it is expected that next week's trading is still flat
.

In terms of inventory: this week's Lun aluminum inventory maintained a straight downward trend, the latest inventory reported 1331175 metric tons, a total of 30,725 metric tons of inventory was reduced this week, a decrease of about 2.
3%; The total aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 461,380 tons, an increase of 5,018 tons or about 1.
1%
from last week.
This week, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the five places in the country was 1.
3321 million tons, an increase of 27,800 tons from last week, after the news of capacity reduction gradually decreased, high inventories or will re-dominate the trend of aluminum prices, and it is expected that the trend of aluminum prices in the later period will still be constrained
.

In the future market: this week, boosted by capital speculation and the news of domestic capacity reduction, spot aluminum prices are strong
.
However, the poor performance of domestic and foreign economic data has aggravated the market's concerns about weak metal demand, and the upside of aluminum prices may be hindered
in the later period.
On the eve of the release of the US non-farm payrolls data, the market maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude; Affected by the off-season of consumption, the market volume is not good
.
Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate
weakly next week.