Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (6.5-6.9)

Macro: Domestically, the release of supply-side reform policies continues to push up aluminum prices, but there is a time difference in the implementation of policies, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the stimulation of considerable profits, enthusiasm for starting, resulting in rapid growth of electrolytic aluminum production, the increase in production aggravates the problem of oversupply, aluminum prices are weak
.
Abroad, the unexpected weakening of the non-farm payrolls data disappointed the market, coupled with the US non-manufacturing PMI index in May and the monthly rate of durable goods orders in April were lower than expected and the previous value, US factory orders in April also fell for the first time in five months, and aluminum prices were weakened by weak data
.

Market: Aluminum prices began to weaken on Monday, which cooled the trading volume of the spot market, and the overall performance of the market was relatively flat; On Tuesday, the continued decline in aluminum prices made the market enthusiasm for receiving goods rebound, traders began to take advantage of the dip to receive goods to rise, and the transaction picked up; The spot discount continued to narrow on Wednesday, but the market circulation was abundant, the holders quoted and shipped actively, and the downstream bargain hunting, and the transaction continued to improve slightly; Aluminum prices rebounded slightly on Thursday, holders began to actively ship goods, and premium prices also increased, but downstream consumption power is limited, mainly based on traders' purchases, and the market trading situation is acceptable; On Friday, the price of aluminum was weak for one day, the enthusiasm for downstream weekend stocking was not high, only on-demand procurement, the overall trading atmosphere of the market was general, and the big dive at the end of the day aggravated the market wait-and-see sentiment
.

In terms of inventory: the trend of Lun aluminum inventory maintained a decline, the latest inventory reported 1456350 metric tons, a total of 23,375 metric tons of inventory was reduced this week, a decrease of about 1.
6%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 432403 tons, down 2,598 tons, or about 0.
6%,
from last week.
This week, Shanghai social inventory of about 268,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week, South China Sea social inventory of 317,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, weak market demand, aluminum prices may be difficult to rise, next week is expected to continue the trend of weak
shock.

In the future: the latest release of China's May trade data improved, making the market reopen the long window, but the current aluminum market inventory pressure is still rising, supply continues to increase, so that aluminum prices are suppressed upward restrictions
.
In addition, Alcoa restarted half of the capacity of an Australian smelter with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons, and the supply pressure on the aluminum market continued to increase
.
Next week is about to usher in the Fed's June interest rate meeting, the market may remain cautious, and it is expected that next week's aluminum price upside is limited, maintaining weak volatility
.