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According to the monitoring data of the cable network, this week's domestic aluminum price performance first rose and then suppressed, the week fluctuated sharply, the overall market rose, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 12240 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 12570 yuan / ton, up 330 yuan, the overall increase was 2.
7%.
Macro: This week's Brexit referendum hit the metals market, and investors' risk aversion rose, leading to a dilemma
for aluminum prices.
At the beginning of the week, due to the reduction of Brexit risk, the dollar fell, boosting the rebound of aluminum prices, in addition, the news of major domestic companies once again jointly reducing production boosted market sentiment, traders once increased spot premium shipments, supporting domestic aluminum prices higher
.
With the settlement of Brexit on Friday, the aluminum price is under pressure and shock, in the short term, Brexit, the strengthening of the dollar or the trend of aluminum prices will have a certain impact, next week aluminum prices or shock downward, but because of the basic orientation is good, the expected decline is limited, pay attention to the support position
below.
Market: In the first half of this week, the spot market traded hot, the volume was large, from Thursday to Friday morning, the spot trade volume declined, but as the intention to leave the European Union gradually appeared, aluminum prices fell sharply, and holders actively shipped, in contrast, traders received goods weakly, wait-and-see sentiment rose
.
The downstream did not show a strong willingness to purchase, and the near weekend indicated that the inventory was sufficient and the stocking situation was average
.
Overall, traders are still cautious about the future market, the market transaction is cooling, and the short-term is still sideways
.
In terms of stocks: as of June 24, LME aluminum stocks reported 2415875 tons, a weekly decrease of 30,325 tons or 1.
24%, close to the low of January 9, 2009 (2406225 tons); In the same period, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 184953 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,782 tons or 9.
66%, the thirteenth decrease in 14 weeks, hitting a low since December 27
, 2013.
Aluminum inventories continue to maintain a downward trend, and the domestic spot market continues to rise, giving strong support to aluminum prices, and the downward space for aluminum prices is limited
in the short term.
Aftermarket analysis: This week's Brexit referendum triggered continued turmoil in the global economy, governments urgently introduced policies to deal with the possible impact of this event on the economy, after the announcement of the Brexit results, the Fed may be difficult to raise interest rates, RMB RRR reduction expectations are heating up, short-term market macro risks are still flooding the market, base metals will be affected, cautious sentiment led by aluminum prices or decline
.
In terms of fundamentals, due to the continued strength of domestic spots, aluminum prices may fall slightly, but it is difficult to fall sharply, wait and see, wait patiently for market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market
.