Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (4.5-4.8)

Macro: This week's industrial products collectively adjusted to varying degrees, and the outer copper broke down in the second half of the week, further driving the non-ferrous metal collective to follow the dive
.
This week's Fed interest rate decision and Yellen's speech both expressed concern about the strength of the economic recovery and the speed of inflation recovery, as well as concerns about the growth rate of the economy overseas, especially in China, and market caution increased
.
In addition, the news of the resumption of production of the association-led aluminum plant in the market has hit the market's confidence
in the future market aluminum price.
This week, Shanghai aluminum touched the pressure area around 11900-12000 and then quickly fell back to around 11500, and the short-term rally ended and fell into shock sorting
.

Market: According to news, aluminum prices have rebounded 20% from the low point in November last year, driving the revival of some domestic shutdown capacity, and the revival of production capacity has put pressure
on the market where demand has not improved without changing expectations for future demand.
However, from the perspective of the spot market, the premium of aluminum ingots fell to flat water, and the tight situation was slightly eased, but the firm trend of spot still formed a strong support
for short-term aluminum prices.
On the whole, it is difficult to release the resumption of production and expansion of production capacity in the short term, structural supply tension will still dominate the market in the near future, and the chance of a sharp decline in domestic aluminum prices is limited
.

In terms of inventory: the trend of aluminum inventories on the exchange this week is consistent
with the trend of aluminum inventories.
As of April 8, LME aluminum stocks reported 2749650 tons, down 6,875 tons from the previous day, and hit another low since March 2 this year (2,751,100 tons); At the same time, as of April 8, the aluminum inventory in the previous period reported 323915 tons, a weekly decrease of 2495 tons, which is a decrease of three consecutive weeks, indicating that the pressure of aluminum inventory has declined
.
At present, with the decline in aluminum prices, buyers' wait-and-see sentiment is rising, downstream consumer demand is weak, risk aversion is cautious, and procurement willingness is light
.

Aftermarket analysis: This week, domestic aluminum prices gradually fell and adjusted, market caution heated up, and there was a wait-and-see attitude
towards future market expectations.
Previously, with the continuous rise of aluminum prices, the willingness of domestic suspended enterprises to resume production is high, once the aluminum price exceeds 12,000 yuan, domestic aluminum production may increase significantly, and then put pressure on aluminum prices, in the medium term, Shanghai aluminum above the resistance is increasing
.
It is expected that next week, Shanghai aluminum will still be mainly adjusted, focusing on the support of 11,500 yuan, and the following break may trigger a deep pullback
.