Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (4.18-4.22)

Macro: Sunday's Doha crude oil freeze conference negotiations failed, Saudi Arabia represented by Gulf oil producers in recent years are actively increasing production, crude oil plunged 6% on Monday, causing market concerns, but then crude oil rebounded, limited impact on commodities, this week Sino-US data performed well, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached a new low, China's real estate price data rose
strongly.
Ferrous metals rose violently again, and coke, thread, and iron ore rose to the limit, supporting metal prices to fall
.

Market: this week aluminum prices picked up sharply, but did not drive the market trading enthusiasm, holders maintained high shipments, after the price broke through 10,000 in the middle of the week, holders appeared reluctant to sell, some bullish traders received, but overall still more cautious, Friday prices continued to pick up, spot prices immediately higher, holders high shipments, reported in the maintenance of the average price of the Yangtze River to the average price of about +10 yuan / ton shipments, some traders continue to take goods, but the price rose rapidly, buyers for the future market expectations more wait-and-see attitude, The overall demand of downstream consumer enterprises has not improved, maintaining low on-demand procurement, and maintaining market caution in the short term
.

In terms of stocks: as of April 22, LME aluminum stocks reported 2,675,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 36,950 tons or 1.
36%, close to the low point set on January 22, 2009 (2,675,700 tons); In the same period, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 319381 tonnes, a weekly increase of 513 tonnes, the first increase in five weeks, but still close to the level
of February 26 this year.
On the whole, the short-term aluminum market structural supply shortage or will continue, short-term aluminum prices will continue to perform strongly, next week there will be a May Day short holiday stocking period, waiting for market changes
.

Aftermarket analysis: Aluminum prices at home and abroad have risen this week, with Shanghai aluminum rising 7% and Lun aluminum rising more than 5%.

Recently, the production reduction effect plus capital promotion makes the trend of aluminum prices relatively strong, Lun aluminum, Shanghai aluminum main force successively broke through the integer mark, short-term optimism still exists, the possibility of rushing up to the 10,000 mark increases, but the rapid rise or the upward momentum of aluminum prices can be weakened, it is expected that the rally is difficult to last, next week or there will be a consolidation trend, you need to beware of the risk of rushing back down, Shanghai aluminum pay attention to the performance
of 13,000 yuan.